I waffled a bit but ended up making the right play OtB. I was surprised by the difference between plays more than anything. Even at dmp it holds.
Note the variant below where we've moved the opp's 5pt to his 4pt. I thought it might make slightly more of an impact on the size of the error. (though there's still some variance left) It is often so right to keep the wedged 18pt anchor when the opponent has his 8pt+6pt+5pt formation (or better) but decreases significantly in importance if lessen that structure.
            
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 150 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-A-a--D-C--BeB-aabBcb---A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/3* 3/1 | eq: +0.026 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.14% (G:13.91% B:0.24%)
50.86% (G:10.46% B:0.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.013...+0.040) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53.8 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/16* 18/15* | eq: -0.049 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.15% (G:13.89% B:0.51%)
50.85% (G:15.33% B:0.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.067...-0.031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
DMP
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 150 | | 1 point match | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-A-a--D-C--BeB-aabBcb---A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/3* 3/1 | eq: -0.018 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.10% (G:14.09% B:0.51%)
50.90% (G:10.41% B:0.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.021...-0.015) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout2 | 18/16* 18/15* | eq: -0.026 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.68% (G:16.41% B:1.40%)
51.32% (G:16.46% B:2.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.030...-0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 148 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-A-a--D-C--BeB-aabBc-b--A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/3* 3/1 | eq: +0.033 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.41% (G:14.78% B:0.28%)
50.59% (G:10.73% B:0.48%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.026...+0.040) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/16* 18/15* | eq: -0.006 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.20% (G:14.25% B:0.57%)
49.80% (G:15.25% B:0.83%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.014...+0.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|