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Do you want to win G or BG and how ? - Rollout

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Thursday, 11 September 2025, at 7:04 p.m.

In Response To: Do you want to win G or BG and how ? (pierrez)

		White is Joueur 2 score: 2 pip: 80 7 point match pip: 17 score: 2 Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-aaCB-------a--------aacg-:1:1:1:22:2:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 22

1.	Rollout1	4/2*(2) 2/Off(2)	eq: +2,393
	Player: Opponent: 99,35% (G:82,54% B:29,39%) 0,65% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (+2,389...+2,398) - [100,0%] Duration: 4 minutes 35 seconds
2.	Rollout1	4/2*(2) 3/1*(2)	eq: +2,322 (-0,071)
	Player: Opponent: 99,93% (G:87,41% B:16,58%) 0,07% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,002 (+2,320...+2,324) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 01 second
3.	3-ply	4/2* 3/1*(2) 2/Off	eq: +2,136 (-0,257)
	Player: Opponent: 98,67% (G:73,19% B:18,80%) 1,33% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
4.	2-ply	4/2*(2) 3/1* 2/Off	eq: +2,035 (-0,358)
	Player: Opponent: 97,76% (G:69,78% B:14,80%) 2,24% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
5.	2-ply	4/2* 3/1*(3)	eq: +2,002 (-0,391)
	Player: Opponent: 98,43% (G:69,22% B:11,31%) 1,57% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

The 2 questions are :
1 - At this score, does one need (not want) a G or a BG ?
2 - How to win G or BG ?

The latter is easier to answer :
4/2*(2), 2/0(2) will generate more BG, because there will be no blot in the homeboard and the three remaining checkers may be bore off with a double or in two rolls after a good sequence
4/2*(2), 3/1*(2) will generate less BG, because there will be still 5 checkers to bear off in case of no return hit from the bar

In addition 4/2*(2), 3/1*(2) will generate more G, because in the case of a return hit from the bar, the checker will be the only one to be hit (point 2 will never break barring playing backgammon until the end of the solar system), compared to the BG play when one have to play a roll like X-2 or X-1 exposing to a double shot.
Furthermore the blots inside the White home board will help Blue to collect additional gammons on the race back.

As to the first question :
Of course, at -4 -2, one needs only a gammon to win the match and at -6 -2, a backgammon will end the match.
At -5 -5, it is more important to win the match than to reach the Crawford game compared to -5 -7 for instance.

But we have to use the backgammon/gammon price to find out who of BG or G gives more weight to the total equity. The price is 0.5, that means 1BG is worth 0.5G. In this position playing the BG gives up 5% G for winning extra 13% BG.

So go for BG.

Messages In This Thread

• Do you want to win G or BG and how ?
  pierrez -- Sunday, 7 September 2025, at 10:54 a.m.
  • Do you want to win G or BG and how ?
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 7 September 2025, at 3:06 p.m.
  • Do you want to win G or BG and how ? - Rollout
    pierrez -- Thursday, 11 September 2025, at 7:04 p.m.