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Snowie rollout disagrees

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 16 July 2008, at 6:35 p.m.

In Response To: Snowie rollout disagrees (neilkaz)

Play	Stick/Gnubg 95% conf interval	Kaz/Snowie 95% conf interval
b/23 13/7	-0.667 ... -0.614 ... -0.561	-0.576 ... -0.540 ... -0.504
b/23 21/15	-0.582 ... -0.545 ... -0.509	-0.613 ... -0.572 ... -0.531

1. Both rollouts need extending before concluding with great confidence that one play is better than the other or that the bots disagree. The 95% confidence intervals overlap by 0.021 in Stick's rollout and by 0.045 in Neil's.

2. For whatever difference it may make, we should also note that the rollouts' EMGs are based on two different match equity tables.

(For the Gnubg rollout, the 95% confidence interval(s) = +- 1.96 * 2 SDs.)

Messages In This Thread

• Neil v. Stick (Game 2) Finals #9
  Stick -- Monday, 14 July 2008, at 7:02 a.m.
  • Neil v. Stick (Game 2) Finals #9
    MandM1951 -- Monday, 14 July 2008, at 12:06 p.m.
  • Neil v. Stick (Game 2) Finals #9
    Mislav Radica -- Monday, 14 July 2008, at 1:42 p.m.
    • Neil v. Stick (Game 2) Finals #9
      Mislav Radica -- Monday, 14 July 2008, at 1:49 p.m.
  • Neil v. Stick (Game 2) Finals #9
    misja -- Monday, 14 July 2008, at 8:13 p.m.
  • Neil v. Stick (Game 2) Finals #9
    neilkaz -- Monday, 14 July 2008, at 10:54 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 15 July 2008, at 7:21 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Mislav Radica -- Tuesday, 15 July 2008, at 8:05 a.m.
      • Rollout
        Stick -- Tuesday, 15 July 2008, at 8:27 a.m.
        • Rollout
          Mislav Radica -- Tuesday, 15 July 2008, at 8:40 a.m.
    • Rollout
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 15 July 2008, at 2:57 p.m.
    • Opposite Rollout Result
      Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 16 July 2008, at 9:14 a.m.
      • Opposite Rollout Result
        Stick -- Wednesday, 16 July 2008, at 10:42 a.m.
        • Opposite Rollout Result
          Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 16 July 2008, at 12:01 p.m.
          • Opposite Rollout Result
            Stick -- Wednesday, 16 July 2008, at 12:26 p.m.
            • Opposite Rollout Result
              Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 16 July 2008, at 11:54 p.m.
              • Opposite Rollout Result
                Stick -- Thursday, 17 July 2008, at 12:10 a.m.
              • Opposite Rollout Result
                Mislav Radica -- Thursday, 17 July 2008, at 8:12 a.m.
    • Snowie rollout disagrees
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 16 July 2008, at 2:48 p.m.
      • Snowie rollout disagrees
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 16 July 2008, at 6:35 p.m.
      • exporting single postion
        Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 17 July 2008, at 1:05 p.m.
        • Yes..but
          neilkaz -- Thursday, 17 July 2008, at 6:04 p.m.
          • Yes..but
            Gregg Cattanach -- Friday, 18 July 2008, at 3:51 p.m.