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Is it routine ? - Rollout

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Wednesday, 17 September 2025, at 10:02 a.m.

In Response To: Is it routine ? (pierrez)

The word routine was a reference to the maxim : when in doubt, hit.

Here at DMP, we are concerned by finding the play which will win the most single games. The choice is between 13/2 consolidating your homeboard and trying to be ready to resist an attack on our checker lost in the White homeboard and 23/12* escaping and putting a White man on the bar, but exposing 3 blots.

The issue with the hit is that we are offering 21 hits (all the 4 and 2 plus double 5), but compared to what in the non-hit play.

After the gross assumption that after a hit the game is almost over, it is easier to compare what will be the Blue game after the non hitting rolls in both scenarios :

==> 13/2 All 2 (12) plus all 9 (5) plus 6-5 (2) plus 4-4 (switching) hit. Total is 20 hits. If we add the non hitter 5-5, it is 21 very good rolls for White conversely 15 "survival rolls" for Blue which allow him to transpose in a holding game (if the lonely blot can escape)
==> 23/12* All the 4 and 2 plus double 5 hit. Total is 21 hits conversely 15 rolls "one more life" for Blue which allow him to transpose in a blitz or a race game plan after White dances.

		White is Joueur 1 score: 0 pip: 102 1 point match pip: 105 score: 0 Blue is Joueur 2
XGID=-CABA-BbB---aCa----bbcbAb-:0:0:1:56:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 56

1.	Rollout1	23/12*	eq: -0,387
	Player: Opponent: 30,65% (G:3,85% B:0,01%) 69,35% (G:39,11% B:1,19%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (-0,390...-0,384) - [100,0%] Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/2	eq: -0,403 (-0,016)
	Player: Opponent: 29,83% (G:7,13% B:0,04%) 70,17% (G:16,20% B:0,36%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (-0,407...-0,400) - [0,0%] Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
3.	4-ply	8/3 8/2	eq: -0,493 (-0,106)
	Player: Opponent: 25,37% (G:4,43% B:0,05%) 74,63% (G:26,16% B:0,35%)
4.	4-ply	23/17 13/8	eq: -0,543 (-0,156)
	Player: Opponent: 22,83% (G:2,15% B:0,04%) 77,17% (G:28,04% B:0,28%)
5.	3-ply	23/18 8/2	eq: -0,611 (-0,224)
	Player: Opponent: 19,46% (G:2,46% B:0,05%) 80,54% (G:45,70% B:0,95%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Is it routine ?
  pierrez -- Thursday, 11 September 2025, at 7:10 p.m.
  • Is it routine ?
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 11 September 2025, at 9:22 p.m.
  • Is it routine ?
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 12 September 2025, at 3:19 p.m.
  • Is it routine ? - Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 17 September 2025, at 9:31 a.m.
  • Is it routine ? - Rollout
    pierrez -- Wednesday, 17 September 2025, at 10:02 a.m.