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Position of the Day 07-01-25 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 20 September 2025, at 8:17 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 07-01-25 (Stick)

I've addressed this type of position ad nauseum in the past noting that the easy rule of thumb is if the guy trying to get home is 8 pips away or fewer it's a pass. 9 pips or more it's a take. (assuming a ready forward position for the taker etc...) That is for the normal situation where there is only one rear guard for the player being cubed. Here we have multiple being 7 and 8 pips away meaning when the checker doesn't get by we have a lot more shots and that changing the bottom line.

Note the variant below with only one checker 8 pips away and a perfect board. The rule of thumb holds.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 35
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-IBC-ab------A----abbcbb--:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.36% (G:13.65% B:0.00%) 67.31% (G:13.63% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.64% (G:2.03% B:0.04%) 32.69% (G:1.91% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.443 +0.926
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.455 (-0.312)±0.003 (+0.452..+0.457)
Redouble/Take:+0.767±0.006 (+0.761..+0.773)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.233)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6.5 seconds

Variant
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 84
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 35
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-IBC-a-------A----bcbcbb--:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 76.89% (G:0.06% B:0.00%) 77.12% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 23.11% (G:1.06% B:0.02%) 22.88% (G:1.26% B:0.03%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.528 +1.060
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.579 (-0.421)±0.001 (+0.578..+0.580)
Redouble/Take:+1.021 (+0.021)±0.002 (+1.019..+1.023)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4.2 seconds

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