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It is tempting, but risky - Rollout

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Tuesday, 30 September 2025, at 9:34 a.m.

In Response To: It is tempting, but risky (pierrez)

This position was not very successful.

The risky play is the best play, because the gain with this attack will compensate for the high level of White gammons if it fails.

After the hit, White has only a marginal double (!), despite the 22 return hits from the bar and the 3 Blue blots, against no double after the safe play

If the cube has already been turned, the safe play will be on the top of the list.
White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-----aE-CB--dDA---aebb----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout113/11 6/5* eq: -0,362
Player:
Opponent:		42,26% (G:5,54% B:0,22%)
57,74% (G:25,37% B:0,85%)		Conf.: ± 0,019 (-0,381...-0,342) - [100,0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout114/13 6/4eq: -0,411 (-0,050)
Player:
Opponent:		36,91% (G:1,71% B:0,05%)
63,09% (G:3,70% B:0,07%)		Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,419...-0,403) - [0,0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 26 seconds
3.XG Roller++14/13 8/6eq: -0,448 (-0,086)
Player:
Opponent:		35,86% (G:1,34% B:0,02%)
64,14% (G:3,18% B:0,05%)
4.4-ply6/5* 5/3eq: -0,510 (-0,148)
Player:
Opponent:		38,70% (G:4,11% B:0,13%)
61,30% (G:20,46% B:0,41%)
5.4-ply14/11eq: -0,513 (-0,151)
Player:
Opponent:		35,95% (G:2,61% B:0,06%)
64,05% (G:12,83% B:0,14%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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