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Tempting but risky Variants - Rollouts

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 1 October 2025, at 2:04 p.m.

In Response To: It is tempting, but risky - Rollout (pierrez)





White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-----aE-CB--dDA---aebb----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout113/11 6/5* eq: -0,362
Player:
Opponent:		42,26% (G:5,54% B:0,22%)
57,74% (G:25,37% B:0,85%)		Conf.: ± 0,019 (-0,381...-0,342) - [100,0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout114/13 6/4eq: -0,411 (-0,050)
Player:
Opponent:		36,91% (G:1,71% B:0,05%)
63,09% (G:3,70% B:0,07%)		Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,419...-0,403) - [0,0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 26 seconds
3.XG Roller++14/13 8/6eq: -0,448 (-0,086)
Player:
Opponent:		35,86% (G:1,34% B:0,02%)
64,14% (G:3,18% B:0,05%)
4.4-ply6/5* 5/3eq: -0,510 (-0,148)
Player:
Opponent:		38,70% (G:4,11% B:0,13%)
61,30% (G:20,46% B:0,41%)
5.4-ply14/11eq: -0,513 (-0,151)
Player:
Opponent:		35,95% (G:2,61% B:0,06%)
64,05% (G:12,83% B:0,14%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Pierrez posted the rollout above. Below are rollouts of two variants. White's 7pt checker is moved:

(a) 1 pip backward, and
(b) 1 pip forward.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----aE-CB--dDA---bdbb----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout114/13 6/4eq: -0.374
Player:
Opponent:		37.61% (G:1.41% B:0.03%)
62.39% (G:2.47% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.378...-0.370) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout114/13 8/6eq: -0.403 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		36.99% (G:1.24% B:0.03%)
63.01% (G:2.77% B:0.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.408...-0.399) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 15 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6911701
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 126
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----aE-CB--dDA----fbb----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout113/11 6/5* eq: -0.331
Player:
Opponent:		43.12% (G:5.49% B:0.20%)
56.88% (G:22.69% B:0.78%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.338...-0.325) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout114/13 6/4eq: -0.445 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:		35.92% (G:1.83% B:0.05%)
64.08% (G:3.76% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.450...-0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 14 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87535025
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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