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Ace point game cube action -ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 7 October 2025, at 6:23 p.m.

In Response To: Ace point game cube action (ah_clem)

Ace point game, down by ~40 pips is usually a big pass, maybe even TG w/o Jacoby.

Here, blue has 14 rolls that force a blot and only 5 that clear the rearmost point. Granted, white still needs to hit the blot, but apparently it adds up to a monster take, and not even a cube.

I was playing white, and otb I didn't recognize how many bad rolls blue had or how few good ones either. I'm still surprised by how bad an error it is to pass this one.

Despite the ND verdict from the rollout, it's a good practical double since it doesn't take very many passes to make up for the small cube error.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 110
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 67
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bD-DBBC----------bccbb-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.06% (G:7.45% B:0.22%) 67.27% (G:7.37% B:0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.94% (G:2.55% B:0.09%) 32.73% (G:2.56% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.391 +0.789
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.620±0.007 (+0.613..+0.628)
Double/Take:+0.595 (-0.025)±0.009 (+0.586..+0.605)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.380)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 19.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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