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Position of the Day 07-17-25 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 13 October 2025, at 7:04 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 07-17-25 (Stick)

Sure is tempting having an anchor and the other 13 men in the zone with one already on the roof for the opponent. Issue is it's hard to do it all this turn (barring doubles) or to even do enough we reach pass territory without our opponent just rolling his worst out of left field.

I think this is a position where if you mentally go through all your rolls and how they play the process will highlight the issues you have. (always leaving a shot or your opponent simply anchoring up when he has the better board and it's a virtually even race)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 111
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-ABa-CCC--A-----bcbbB-bb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.57% (G:22.42% B:0.56%) 63.76% (G:23.10% B:0.55%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.43% (G:9.24% B:0.33%) 36.24% (G:9.55% B:0.35%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.406 +0.825
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.640±0.009 (+0.631..+0.649)
Redouble/Take:+0.583 (-0.057)±0.017 (+0.567..+0.600)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.360)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 34.6 seconds

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