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Position of the Day 07-19-25 - Lift? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 15 October 2025, at 9:24 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 07-19-25 - Lift? (Stick)

Both who responded went with the lift so we didn't really discuss which non lifting play would be correct but it's probably obvious to most of you that /14 is best as it leaves [66 44 33] as covers instead of just [66 55]. Also playing I imagine a minor roll is a few return shots from the bar if we are hit with [62] and just the checker being closer in general so that next turn we are more likely to get it into direct range.

With that out of the way a good question becomes what's the cube action after either play + fan? Those rollouts are below.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 45
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABBBB--------a--BbBc-bg-:1:1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout118/15* 15/14eq: +0.813
Player:
Opponent:		72.54% (G:7.79% B:0.23%)
27.46% (G:12.37% B:0.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.806...+0.820) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20.3 seconds
2.Rollout118/15* 2/1eq: +0.790 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		70.10% (G:5.69% B:0.15%)
29.90% (G:3.25% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.784...+0.797) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17.5 seconds
3.Rollout218/17 18/15* eq: +0.777 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		71.64% (G:7.69% B:0.22%)
28.36% (G:12.24% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.768...+0.787) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.6 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Lift + fan
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 60
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aC-BBBB--------A--AbBc-bg-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.50% (G:5.27% B:0.13%) 74.75% (G:5.40% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.50% (G:2.24% B:0.01%) 25.25% (G:2.32% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.522 +1.054
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.914 (0.000)±0.002 (+0.911..+0.916)
Redouble/Take:+0.914±0.003 (+0.911..+0.917)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.086)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:56.6%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds

No lift + fan

XGR+ and weaker all thought this was a clear take. XGR++ agreed with the full rollout.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 60
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBABBBB-------A---AbBc-bg-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.22% (G:6.26% B:0.16%) 78.94% (G:6.45% B:0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.78% (G:5.89% B:0.02%) 21.06% (G:7.23% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.510 +1.145
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.849 (-0.151)±0.006 (+0.843..+0.855)
Redouble/Take:+1.054 (+0.054)±0.012 (+1.042..+1.066)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13.2 seconds

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