[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Position of the Day 07-19-25 - Lift? - Rollout

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 15 October 2025, at 5:07 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 07-19-25 - Lift? - Rollout (Stick)

Trying to make my play right. If a player can get a super close decision correct it shows great skill right?

There is more. XG++ doesn't cube after lift and fan. However rollout with strong settings is showing that as a .015 error. Thus, the rollout is undervaluing the lift play.

XG++:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 60
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aC-BBBB--------A--AbBc-bg-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.339% (G:5.348% B:0.138%) 74.490% (G:5.623% B:0.155%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.661% (G:2.065% B:0.006%) 25.510% (G:2.165% B:0.004%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5209 +1.0518
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.8968
Redouble/Take:+0.8961 (-0.0007)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1032)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

and rollout:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 60
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aC-BBBB--------A--AbBc-bg-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.471% (G:5.086% B:0.143%) 74.735% (G:5.272% B:0.140%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.529% (G:2.285% B:0.006%) 25.265% (G:2.278% B:0.006%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5188 +1.0520
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.9008 (-0.0149)±0.0034 (+0.8974..+0.9042)
Redouble/Take:+0.9158±0.0050 (+0.9108..+0.9207)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0842)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
First 6 moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves and cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Gigantic
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 48 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.