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Pay now or later: Two progressive Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 20 October 2025, at 4:48 p.m.

In Response To: Pay now or later ? Rollout (pierrez)

		White is Joueur 2 score: 0 pip: 89 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 107 score: 0 Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-BBBbBB-B----A-----bccBcb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	13/10	eq: -0,044
	Player: Opponent: 42,60% (G:9,20% B:0,25%) 57,40% (G:13,44% B:0,22%) Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,050...-0,037) - [100,0%] Duration: 11 minutes 24 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/12 3/1	eq: -0,137 (-0,093)
	Player: Opponent: 38,79% (G:5,92% B:0,14%) 61,21% (G:12,37% B:0,36%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,144...-0,130) - [0,0%] Duration: 9 minutes 33 seconds
3.	Rollout1	3/2 3/1	eq: -0,192 (-0,148)
	Player: Opponent: 37,18% (G:4,18% B:0,08%) 62,82% (G:12,36% B:0,29%) Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,198...-0,186) - [0,0%] Duration: 9 minutes 10 seconds
4.	4-ply	13/11 2/1	eq: -0,181 (-0,137)
	Player: Opponent: 37,80% (G:5,66% B:0,09%) 62,20% (G:12,91% B:0,21%)
5.	4-ply	13/11 3/2	eq: -0,184 (-0,140)
	Player: Opponent: 37,39% (G:5,78% B:0,09%) 62,61% (G:12,33% B:0,21%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Pierrez' rollout of his interesting position is shown above.

If we promote White's anchor from 21pt to 20pt and move Blue's blot back 1 pip, there is a net 1-pip effect in the race. If we promote White's anchor to the 19pt and move Blue's blot back another pip, there is another net effect of 1 pip.

On the other hand, the impact on the best play is enormous. 13/10 (above) is best by far (+.093), 14/11 is fourth best a mistake (-.039), and 15/12 is eleventh best and a blunder (-.087).

See rollout results below.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 87 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 106 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBbB-B-----A----bccBcb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	4/1	eq: -0.269
	Player: Opponent: 34.58% (G:4.95% B:0.10%) 65.42% (G:13.72% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.272...-0.266) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 16 seconds
2.	Rollout1	14/13 4/2	eq: -0.282 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 34.36% (G:5.14% B:0.11%) 65.64% (G:14.45% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.285...-0.279) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 03 seconds
3.	Rollout1	14/13 3/1	eq: -0.307 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 33.22% (G:4.68% B:0.09%) 66.78% (G:14.35% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.310...-0.304) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 58 seconds
4.	Rollout1	14/11	eq: -0.309 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 33.83% (G:6.12% B:0.17%) 66.17% (G:15.31% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.312...-0.305) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 18 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32831150 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 85 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 105 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBb-B------A---bccBcb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	5/2	eq: -0.342
	Player: Opponent: 32.44% (G:4.72% B:0.09%) 67.56% (G:15.86% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.344...-0.339) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	15/14 5/3	eq: -0.353 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 31.58% (G:4.29% B:0.09%) 68.42% (G:14.41% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.356...-0.350) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 35 seconds
3.	Rollout1	15/14 3/1	eq: -0.368 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 31.05% (G:4.08% B:0.09%) 68.95% (G:14.43% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.371...-0.365) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 50 seconds
4.	Rollout1	15/14 4/2	eq: -0.370 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 31.33% (G:4.19% B:0.09%) 68.67% (G:14.80% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.373...-0.367) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 00 second
5.	Rollout1	4/1	eq: -0.374 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 31.28% (G:4.27% B:0.08%) 68.72% (G:15.79% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.377...-0.371) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds
6.	Rollout1	4/3 4/2	eq: -0.379 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 30.85% (G:3.32% B:0.07%) 69.15% (G:14.43% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.382...-0.376) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 54 seconds
7.	Rollout1	5/4 5/3	eq: -0.384 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 30.83% (G:3.44% B:0.08%) 69.17% (G:14.87% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.387...-0.381) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 15 seconds
8.	Rollout1	3/2 3/1	eq: -0.385 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 30.76% (G:3.30% B:0.07%) 69.24% (G:14.85% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.388...-0.382) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 27 seconds
9.	Rollout1	15/13 5/4	eq: -0.399 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 29.48% (G:3.83% B:0.09%) 70.52% (G:13.35% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.402...-0.396) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds
10.	Rollout1	15/13 2/1	eq: -0.402 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 29.49% (G:3.67% B:0.08%) 70.51% (G:13.56% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.405...-0.399) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 01 second
11.	Rollout1	15/13 3/2	eq: -0.421 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 28.90% (G:3.65% B:0.07%) 71.10% (G:14.01% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.424...-0.418) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 17 seconds
12.	Rollout1	15/12	eq: -0.429 (-0.087)
	Player: Opponent: 29.23% (G:4.31% B:0.12%) 70.77% (G:14.48% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.432...-0.426) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 58 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 63433446 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Pay now or later ?
  pierrez -- Friday, 3 October 2025, at 6:39 p.m.
  • Pay now or later ?
    ah_clem -- Friday, 3 October 2025, at 9:59 p.m.
  • Pay now or later ?
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 4 October 2025, at 3:31 a.m.
  • Pay now or later ?
    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 4 October 2025, at 4:14 a.m.
  • Pay now or later ? Rollout
    pierrez -- Thursday, 9 October 2025, at 4:51 p.m.
    • Pay now or later: Two progressive Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 20 October 2025, at 4:48 p.m.
      • Pay now or later: Two progressive Variants
        MK -- Thursday, 6 November 2025, at 9:40 p.m.