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Position of the Day 07-23-25 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 22 October 2025, at 3:31 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 07-23-25 (Stick)

Watching this rollout showed why it's sometimes important to keep rolling even when you've reached (near) statistical certainty. After 1296 trials the best play was 99.8% and ~.030 ahead. I could have posted it then and there no issues in my mind. The final rollout below still the same best play but to me there's a big difference between making a ~.030 error and ~.010 error. If I really cared and was studying this game I'd go ahead and grind out all the variance because I'm obsessive like that but luckily I don't and I'm not.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 134 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---Bb-EbD----B-b-bcdB-----:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	8/5 6/1	eq: +0.095
	Player: Opponent: 52.09% (G:13.21% B:0.25%) 47.91% (G:8.32% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.087...+0.102) - [99.1%] Duration: 3 minutes 09 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/3 6/1	eq: +0.082 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 51.72% (G:12.97% B:0.26%) 48.28% (G:9.61% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.074...+0.089) - [0.9%] Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 07-23-25
  Stick -- Monday, 20 October 2025, at 9:40 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-23-25
    ah_clem -- Monday, 20 October 2025, at 11:26 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-23-25
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 21 October 2025, at 3:22 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-23-25
    George Morse -- Tuesday, 21 October 2025, at 1:25 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-23-25 - Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 22 October 2025, at 3:31 p.m.