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A pretty pair: Rollouts + explanation

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 22 October 2025, at 6:34 p.m.

In Response To: A pretty pair (Nack Ballard)





White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 28
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 64
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-BBaBDE---------------b---:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
A pretty one (four aces to play)

1.Rollout16/3* 1/Offeq: -0,340
Player:
Opponent:
27,22% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
72,78% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf.: ą 0,010 (-0,349...-0,330) - [94,4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout15/3* 4/3 1/Offeq: -0,351 (-0,011)
Player:
Opponent:
26,82% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
73,18% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf.: ą 0,010 (-0,361...-0,341) - [5,6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout15/4 5/3* 1/Offeq: -0,378 (-0,038)
Player:
Opponent:
25,81% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
74,19% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf.: ą 0,009 (-0,388...-0,369) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds
4.Rollout15/3* 1/Off(2)eq: -0,437 (-0,098)
Player:
Opponent:
23,49% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
76,51% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf.: ą 0,009 (-0,447...-0,428) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds
5.Rollout15/3*(2) eq: -0,438 (-0,099)
Player:
Opponent:
23,80% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
76,20% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Conf.: ą 0,008 (-0,446...-0,431) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 28
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 58
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBDD---------------b---:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Another pretty one (four aces to play)

1.Rollout15/3* 4/3 1/Offeq: -0.375
Player:
Opponent:
25.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.380...-0.370) - [99.9%]
Duration: 18 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout16/3* 1/Offeq: -0.385 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
25.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.390...-0.381) - [0.1%]
Duration: 19 minutes 52 seconds
3.Rollout15/4 5/3* 1/Offeq: -0.396 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
25.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.401...-0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 05 seconds
4.Rollout15/3*(2) eq: -0.419 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
24.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
75.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.423...-0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 06 seconds
5.Rollout16/3* 5/4eq: -0.422 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
24.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
75.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.425...-0.418) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 18 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32831150
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

The positions above (collectively referred to as "A pretty pair" are side by side (maximize your screen width for best viewing). The left-hand (first) position is "A pretty one" (a copy of the rollout posted by Pierrez). The right-hand position is "Another pretty one" (rollout by me).

In the left-hand (first) position, Blue has an extra spare on the 6pt. In the right-hand (second) position, it is borne off. Why does that single-checker alteration change the best play?

The two positions after three key aces (5/3* 1/off) have been played are shown below, again side by side. Only one ace remains to be played.

In either position, if you play 6/5, White will leave a double blot (which Blue will be shooting at, from the roof) with 5 numbers: 11 31 32. If, on the other hand, you play the clever shift of 4/3, White will leave a double blot on 7 numbers: 11 21 41 42.

6/5 (as opposed to 4/3) gives you compensations for having 2 fewer root numbers: (a) You will have a better prime in front of Opp in more variations, and (b) After 6/5, she cannot escape with 33, whereas after 4/3 she can escape with 44.

The above is true in both positions, but 6/5 is more helpful to your distribution in the left (third) diagram than in the right (fourth) diagram. That distributional difference is enough to tip the scales.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 31
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aABABCE---------------b---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
A pretty one (only ONE ace left to play)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 31
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 55
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aABABCD---------------b---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Another pretty one (only ONE ace left to play)

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