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Position of the Day 07-27-25 - Hit n cover or ... Rollout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 29 October 2025, at 5:39 a.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 07-27-25 - Hit n cover or ... (Stick)
The wrong play leaves three times the number of shots as the best play (6 v. 18) and also three times the blots! Tough play OtB...I think we have to make the big play because our back men are so hemmed in. Also, after either play the opponent shouldn't double so when we make the big play and he does hit/double hit us back it's likely he lost his market by a good margin.
See variant below where our back checkers aren't in a chokehold.
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 125 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--A-BADaB---bCa-bb-cbbB---:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7* 8/5 | eq: -0.579 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.88% (G:10.52% B:0.28%)
66.12% (G:16.39% B:0.74%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.590...-0.568) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7* 5/2 | eq: -0.629 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.76% (G:8.78% B:0.23%)
68.24% (G:11.17% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.642...-0.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25.8 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 128 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--A-BADaB---cCa--c-cbbB---:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/7* 5/2 | eq: -0.234 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.79% (G:13.26% B:0.20%)
58.21% (G:10.94% B:0.46%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/7* 8/5 | eq: -0.283 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.45% (G:14.52% B:0.26%)
58.55% (G:15.06% B:0.70%) | |
|
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