So first off we need to be fairly certain of our evaluation OtB. OtB I thought this was a small pass. The pass is slightly smaller than I would have guessed but a decent ballpark for a real time estimation.
Given that it's such a small pass I think it's probably clear to everyone that if our opponent plays that much worse than us it's an easy take. A couple of things to take into consideration when weighing decisions like this are..
- (As already mentioned) The size of the decision and how sure you are about it
- (As UBK mentioned) Where does the majority of my opponent's PR stem from?
- Is my adjustment worth the time of playing out the game to completion rather than starting a new game?
These are just a few things to consider for this particular situation. For similar situations with other variables involved there can possibly be many more things worth considering.
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| XGID=----B-D-C-a-bB-bbaBcbb--B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71.24% (G:19.69% B:1.58%) | 71.69% (G:20.37% B:1.71%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28.76% (G:3.69% B:0.13%) | 28.31% (G:3.92% B:0.15%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.599 | +1.228 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.937 (-0.063) | ±0.006 (+0.931..+0.943) |
| Double/Take: | +1.009 (+0.009) | ±0.009 (+1.000..+1.018) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 97.8% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 59 seconds | ||