This ends up being more or less what I expected of XG's analysis. On 3 ply and XGR+ it thinks it's a massive take worth +0.850 roughly. 4 ply says small pass and ++ has it as a borderline decision. I expected most plies to say take and a rollout to say pass as is common with this type of decision where XG can't see far enough ahead to realize how the game will unfold.
The first rollout I extended more than usual because even though the confidence was 100% early on there was still a lot of variance left and I wanted to stomp some of it out to get a firmer idea of how big XG though the T/P decision was.
The second rollout is the same position but I've upped the settings some to XGR+/XGR+ and a large move filter. I wanted a more trustworthy answer as I don't trust XG's default rollout settings to play this great. I didn't want to spend forever on the rollout either though so I settled for +/+/L. As we can see, +/+/L even with a decent amount of variant left thinks this is a monster pass.
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| XGID=-aA----aa-a-aa---A-c-bbAbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 80.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 80.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 19.68% (G:1.89% B:0.52%) | 19.83% (G:1.99% B:0.35%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.582 | +1.160 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.923 (-0.077) | ±0.005 (+0.918..+0.929) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.036 (+0.036) | ±0.010 (+1.026..+1.046) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds | ||
XGR+/XGR+ Large
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| ||||
| XGID=-aA----aa-a-aa---A-c-bbAbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 81.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 83.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 18.39% (G:1.67% B:0.53%) | 16.20% (G:1.17% B:0.25%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.610 | +1.324 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +1.000 | ±0.018 (+0.982..+1.018) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.230 (+0.230) | ±0.027 (+1.203..+1.256) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+ Search interval: Large | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 50.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes | ||