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Position of the Day 08-16-25

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 24 November 2025, at 9:46 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 08-16-25 (Stick)

This got a lot less clear after I realized I had the pip counts backwards.

If play safe, will almost entirely be racing chance. I will penalize 3 pips for distribution (excess checkers on 2 and 3 and empty 5 point) so up 17. Then subtract 4 for not being on turn is 13 pip lead. Kleinmann technique gives 169/152 which gives about 77% cubeless to you and 23% to opponent. Will be about 28% or 29% effective wins account for cube.

If you hit and are missed, will win almost all those games and you are hit back about 31% of the time so opponent would need to be a big favorite (with cube helping) to exceed 28%. I don't see it. 4/11 of his hits give you 13/36 chance to hit back and 2/11 of his hits give you 20/36 to hit back.

My play is 7/5 6/5.

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