Constant vigilance! Or so preached one of Raj's favorite characters from Harry Potter, Mad-Eye Moody. In backgammon we should always be on the alert for situations where our opponent's offense is fubared. When we notice it is we have to ask ourselves if there are any plays that we normally wouldn't consider that have validity. This is an example of just that.
Below you can see the variants where the opponent now has a three point board and only one inner board blot and then a two point board with only one inner board blot.
       
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 60 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 39
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aCBBB--a----------a-abi-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/3 6/2* | eq: +1.167 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 97.14% (G:22.49% B:0.64%)
2.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.165...+1.169) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 4/Off 3/Off | eq: +1.151 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98.03% (G:19.04% B:0.58%)
1.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.149...+1.153) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.0 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 4/1 4/Off | eq: +1.143 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98.89% (G:16.60% B:0.26%)
1.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.141...+1.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.1 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 6/2* 3/Off | eq: +1.128 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 94.57% (G:24.31% B:1.01%)
5.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.125...+1.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3.8 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| Variant #1
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 62 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 39
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aCBBB--a----------a-bbh-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 4/1 4/Off | eq: +1.113 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98.44% (G:14.61% B:0.24%)
1.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.111...+1.115) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.7 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/3 6/2* | eq: +1.083 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 95.28% (G:18.60% B:0.49%)
4.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.081...+1.086) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.2 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 4/Off 3/Off | eq: +1.077 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 96.62% (G:15.07% B:0.43%)
3.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.075...+1.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.3 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant #2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 60 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 39
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aCBBB--a----------a--dh-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 4/1 4/Off | eq: +1.149 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98.89% (G:17.13% B:0.26%)
1.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.148...+1.149) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout2 | 6/3 6/2* | eq: +1.147 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 97.04% (G:20.99% B:0.50%)
2.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.147...+1.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.4 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout3 | 4/Off 3/Off | eq: +1.129 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 97.81% (G:17.40% B:0.46%)
2.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.127...+1.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.3 seconds |
|
| |
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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