The score (after 2 games) is: Neil_Kazaross 1, Stick_Rice 1 (match to 13 points)
Move number 25: Stick_Rice to play 32
| Neil_Kazaross | 91 |
|---|---|
| |
| Stick_Rice | 89 |
Position ID: 23aAGQCz3QYwAA Match ID: cImpARAACAAA | |
• Stick_Rice moves 7/4 5/3
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 7/2 | +0.2827 | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 827570422 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| • | 2 | R | 7/4 5/3 | +0.2687 ( -0.0140) | ||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 827570422 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Annotation
It seems I put too much value on the possible shot I may be getting. I quick count 16 numbers that leave me an immediate shot since Neil has neither 5s nor 6s to play. If this is true and I hit about 1/3rd of them, I'll hit a checker roughly 5~6 times in the next sequence. I thought not blotting on the 2pt was clear and am not sure I wouldn't make the same error again if faced with a similar decision.
If I hit in the upcoming sequence I'll have a cash if Neil fans. If I'm blotted and he comes in and hits, he may have a cash or a play on if I fan (since he'd have another blot to scoop up on my bar point)
If there is no blot there when he simply enters I'll have a powerful double since I'll have 3 builders aimed at his tiny little head. Maybe I'm overthinking the position since many ppl said they'd slot here without hesitation, it being both mildly better for the race and when Neil doesn't leave the immediate shot. I'm still torn, and may very well continue to play like the little girl I am.