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BGonline.org Forums
Position of the Day 08-29-25 - The National Average - Rollout
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Position of the Day 08-29-25 - The National Average (Stick)
Date: Monday, 15 December 2025, at 5:37 p.m.
While it is fair to say 'I'm going to play 8(2) and double next turn on most rolls' I feel like that's an incomplete telling of the story even though it's true.
Fact is, after any of the three plays you're going to be doubling after most rolls. (and the opponent will have a take) So why is stacking the on the 8pt better? Well, it gives us a lot of spares to play from the towering 8pt and 6pt. With the other two plays we have to find numbers to play, which there are a fair few good ones, but with 8(2) for the foreseeable future we can roll any damn roll in the deck and it's fine.
What I also believe happens in a lot of the games is that the opponent is forced to give up his midpoint before we are forced to potentially leave a shot from ours, assuming we haven't rolled the clearing doubles yet. This is better than the 11(2) 10(2) variation where we always have to clear those exterior points with direct pressure as the opponent is never leaving his 20pt anchor.
White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 132Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 115
score: 0
Blue is Player 2XGID=-AA-AbE-C---bBBa-b-cbc----:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 33
1. Rollout1 14/8(2) eq: +0.837
Player:
Opponent:73.84% (G:2.24% B:0.03%)
26.16% (G:1.65% B:0.03%)Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.827...+0.848) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30.2 seconds2. Rollout1 13/7(2) eq: +0.797 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:73.02% (G:2.95% B:0.04%)
26.98% (G:2.31% B:0.07%)Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.787...+0.806) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.0 seconds3. Rollout1 14/11(2) 13/10(2) eq: +0.795 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:72.86% (G:1.71% B:0.06%)
27.14% (G:1.99% B:0.06%)Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.786...+0.805) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.4 seconds1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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