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PotD 09-04-25 - Variant with Rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 21 December 2025, at 7:51 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-04-25 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 179
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 177
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab---E-B--AdDa--c-bbA-AA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
White's spare is on her 8pt

1.Rollout123/22 13/11eq: -0.264
Player:
Opponent:
43.60% (G:11.54% B:0.53%)
56.40% (G:16.17% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.285...-0.242) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
2.Rollout123/21 11/10eq: -0.340 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
41.30% (G:10.57% B:0.44%)
58.70% (G:15.13% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.360...-0.320) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds
3.Rollout124/21eq: -0.350 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
41.54% (G:9.91% B:0.44%)
58.46% (G:15.35% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.369...-0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds
4.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.393 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:
41.79% (G:10.23% B:0.53%)
58.21% (G:19.32% B:1.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.412...-0.373) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second
5.Rollout123/21 6/5eq: -0.412 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:
40.62% (G:9.62% B:0.43%)
59.38% (G:18.21% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.431...-0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Those who have played more than a little Nackgammon come to understand that making/covering an outside point is frequently preferable to making an anchor. The above position (rolled out by Stick), with three checkers back on each side, is about halfway between an early backgammon (two back) and early Nackgammon (four back) structure.

Altering the position by 2 pips such that White has a spare on her 6pt (instead of 8pt) makes a sizable difference that results in a very close checker decision. Refer to the variant below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 177
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 177
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab---E-B--AdDa--b-cbA-AA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
White's spare is on her 6pt

1.Rollout124/21eq: -0.290
Player:
Opponent:
42.98% (G:10.68% B:0.49%)
57.02% (G:15.58% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.299...-0.281) - [81.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout123/22 13/11eq: -0.296 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
43.65% (G:11.51% B:0.59%)
56.35% (G:18.13% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.305...-0.287) - [17.5%]
Duration: 57 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout123/21 11/10eq: -0.303 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
42.56% (G:10.61% B:0.44%)
57.44% (G:14.77% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.311...-0.294) - [1.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25803618
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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