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Keep the midpoint? Variants with Rollouts

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 23 December 2025, at 3:06 p.m.

In Response To: Keep the midpoint? Variants with Rollouts (Nack Ballard)

The problem with interpreting bot results is that they will tell you the relative equity of the various moves, but never tell you why it makes a difference.

So, to venture an interpretation, in Nack's first variant, blue has a chance to hit an outfield blot, so keeping the board is favored.

In the second variant, with white's anchor on the three point instead of the four, it becomes harder for her to leap, so outfield control is less important.

Still hard to internalize how these relatively small changes make for a "double whopper" 196 millipoint equity swing. I suppose that's why nobody chimed in with "...it's obvious to keep the the midpoint because of X, Y, and Z."

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