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PotD 09-08-25 - Three Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 29 December 2025, at 10:20 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-08-25 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 86 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 72 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-CCaFB----a------dbbbba-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	7/1 7/5*	eq: +0.220
	Player: Opponent: 63.86% (G:3.65% B:0.06%) 36.14% (G:1.66% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.216...+0.224) - [100.0%] Duration: 5.9 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/1 6/4	eq: +0.143 (-0.077)
	Player: Opponent: 61.31% (G:1.01% B:0.03%) 38.69% (G:1.27% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.139...+0.146) - [0.0%] Duration: 2.0 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Stick rolled out the original position above.

Variant 1 below is a difference of only 2 pips (though cherry picked) and Blue should not hit.

Variants 2 and 3 are respectively 4 and 5 pips different from the original position, together showing that the fair cusp is about 4.3 pips away from the original position.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 88 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 72 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-CCaFB----a-----bbbbbba-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1

1.	Rollout1	7/1 6/4	eq: +0.147
	Player: Opponent: 60.92% (G:0.12% B:0.00%) 39.08% (G:2.69% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.144...+0.150) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/1 4/2	eq: +0.134 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 60.81% (G:0.14% B:0.00%) 39.19% (G:3.63% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.131...+0.137) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds
3.	Rollout1	7/1 7/5*	eq: +0.131 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 58.63% (G:3.27% B:0.02%) 41.37% (G:3.49% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.128...+0.134) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds
4.	Rollout1	7/1 3/1	eq: +0.112 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 59.61% (G:0.16% B:0.01%) 40.39% (G:3.08% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.108...+0.115) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 19586725 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 90 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 72 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-CCaFB----a--a---cbbbba-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2

1.	Rollout1	7/1 7/5*	eq: +0.243
	Player: Opponent: 64.12% (G:5.67% B:0.08%) 35.88% (G:1.78% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.242...+0.245) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/1 6/4	eq: +0.239 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 65.33% (G:1.38% B:0.02%) 34.67% (G:1.40% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.237...+0.241) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
3.	Rollout2	7/1 4/2	eq: +0.229 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 64.93% (G:1.54% B:0.03%) 35.07% (G:1.82% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.224...+0.233) - [0.0%] Duration: 16.3 seconds
4.	Rollout3	7/1 3/1	eq: +0.206 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 64.00% (G:1.22% B:0.03%) 36.00% (G:1.46% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.202...+0.209) - [0.0%] Duration: 56.5 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74779933 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74779933 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 12475311 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 91 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 72 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-CCaFB----a-a----cbbbba-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3

1.	Rollout1	7/1 6/4	eq: +0.257
	Player: Opponent: 65.96% (G:1.59% B:0.03%) 34.04% (G:1.43% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.254...+0.260) - [100.0%] Duration: 19.9 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/1 7/5*	eq: +0.247 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 64.03% (G:6.17% B:0.10%) 35.97% (G:1.82% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.243...+0.250) - [0.0%] Duration: 48.1 seconds
3.	Rollout1	7/1 4/2	eq: +0.245 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 65.61% (G:1.91% B:0.05%) 34.39% (G:1.94% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.241...+0.249) - [0.0%] Duration: 20.3 seconds
4.	Rollout1	7/1 3/1	eq: +0.229 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 64.73% (G:1.56% B:0.03%) 35.27% (G:1.51% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.226...+0.233) - [0.0%] Duration: 23.5 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 10379548 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 09-08-25
  Stick -- Saturday, 27 December 2025, at 10:25 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-25
    Francesco -- Saturday, 27 December 2025, at 1:52 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-25
    Michael Zakrajsek -- Saturday, 27 December 2025, at 2:35 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-25
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 27 December 2025, at 3:28 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-25
    negheonegu -- Sunday, 28 December 2025, at 9:29 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-25 - Rollout
    Stick -- Sunday, 28 December 2025, at 7:51 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 09-08-25 - Rollout
      ah_clem -- Sunday, 28 December 2025, at 11:15 p.m.
    • PotD 09-08-25 - Three Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 29 December 2025, at 10:20 a.m.