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PotD 01-04-25 - Three variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 6 January 2026, at 7:52 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 01-04-25 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 129 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 129 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB--BCBA---cC---cBdbb----:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.194
	Player: Opponent: 55.31% (G:12.87% B:0.29%) 44.69% (G:11.03% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.185...+0.204) - [99.9%] Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/8 6/2	eq: +0.175 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 54.55% (G:9.64% B:0.16%) 45.45% (G:9.22% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.168...+0.182) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds
3.	Rollout2	18/14 18/13	eq: +0.160 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 55.14% (G:7.92% B:0.21%) 44.86% (G:11.15% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.150...+0.169) - [0.0%] Duration: 44.4 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/3 7/3	eq: +0.110 (-0.084)
	Player: Opponent: 52.58% (G:12.31% B:0.18%) 47.42% (G:9.85% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.099...+0.121) - [0.0%] Duration: 36.0 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/9 6/1*	eq: -0.155 (-0.349)
	Player: Opponent: 46.32% (G:11.29% B:0.18%) 53.68% (G:15.47% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.167...-0.143) - [0.0%] Duration: 42.5 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants, with three different decidedly best plays.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 131 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 129 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB--BCBA---cC---cBeba----:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Variant: White's 4pt is uncovered

1.	Rollout1	18/14 18/13	eq: +0.490
	Player: Opponent: 63.25% (G:12.26% B:0.40%) 36.75% (G:8.19% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.480...+0.501) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 34 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.435 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 61.00% (G:16.45% B:0.45%) 39.00% (G:8.98% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.424...+0.446) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 49 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: +0.354 (-0.136)
	Player: Opponent: 58.65% (G:16.91% B:0.38%) 41.35% (G:10.68% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.343...+0.366) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 07 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/3 7/3	eq: +0.336 (-0.154)
	Player: Opponent: 58.22% (G:16.45% B:0.26%) 41.78% (G:9.24% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.324...+0.348) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 22 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 14918607 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 129 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB--BCBA---cC---cBeab----:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Variant: White's 5pt is uncovered

1.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.514
	Player: Opponent: 62.75% (G:16.10% B:0.37%) 37.25% (G:8.08% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.503...+0.525) - [100.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/14 18/13	eq: +0.392 (-0.122)
	Player: Opponent: 61.07% (G:10.70% B:0.30%) 38.93% (G:9.16% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.382...+0.402) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 09 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: +0.375 (-0.139)
	Player: Opponent: 58.92% (G:17.27% B:0.37%) 41.08% (G:10.57% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.362...+0.388) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/3 7/3	eq: +0.355 (-0.159)
	Player: Opponent: 58.28% (G:16.17% B:0.28%) 41.72% (G:8.27% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.344...+0.367) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 50 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51764530 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 119 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 129 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB--BCBA---cC---cBbbb--b-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Variant: White adds any inside point

1.	Rollout1	13/8 6/2	eq: +0.092
	Player: Opponent: 51.95% (G:8.22% B:0.17%) 48.05% (G:9.61% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.081...+0.102) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 01 second
2.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.014 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 51.34% (G:11.52% B:0.33%) 48.66% (G:17.05% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.003...+0.025) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 33 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: -0.012 (-0.104)
	Player: Opponent: 50.25% (G:11.29% B:0.29%) 49.75% (G:17.43% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.022...-0.002) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds
4.	Rollout1	18/14 18/13	eq: -0.023 (-0.115)
	Player: Opponent: 49.91% (G:6.90% B:0.21%) 50.09% (G:17.87% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.032...-0.014) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds
5.	Rollout1	8/3 7/3	eq: -0.026 (-0.118)
	Player: Opponent: 49.64% (G:10.16% B:0.22%) 50.36% (G:12.87% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.036...-0.016) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 36 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2013160 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 01-04-25
  Stick -- Sunday, 4 January 2026, at 8:29 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-04-25
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 4 January 2026, at 9:05 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 01-04-25
      Stick -- Tuesday, 6 January 2026, at 5:07 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-04-25
    Francesco -- Monday, 5 January 2026, at 8:10 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-04-25
    negheonegu -- Monday, 5 January 2026, at 5:22 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-04-25
    ah_clem -- Monday, 5 January 2026, at 10:51 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-04-25
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 6 January 2026, at 2:09 a.m.
  • SEMI-SPOILER Position of the Day 01-04-25
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 6 January 2026, at 3:32 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-04-25 - Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 6 January 2026, at 5:08 p.m.
    • PotD 01-04-25 - Three variants
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 January 2026, at 7:52 p.m.