         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 133 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a----EBC---bC---dceB-----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Original Position |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: +0.030 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.62% (G:10.76% B:0.33%)
49.38% (G:10.97% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.017...+0.043) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59.8 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7 | eq: -0.022 (-0.051) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.53% (G:9.43% B:0.26%)
51.47% (G:7.41% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.034...-0.009) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52.6 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/10 | eq: -0.028 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.40% (G:9.05% B:0.26%)
51.60% (G:7.41% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.041...-0.016) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52.9 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 7/5 6/5 | eq: -0.044 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.02% (G:10.49% B:0.29%)
51.98% (G:8.37% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.057...-0.030) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.4 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Thoughtful and astute analysis by Michael.
I would add or sum up that (a) Some of White's non-hitting 6s play inefficiently, (b) her non-hitting 4's play relatively efficiently, and (c) hitting with 43 leaves an offensive blot. To partially solve for these facets, while the adjustment isn't entirely "fair," consider Variant 1 below, where White's fourth 8pt checker is back on her 10pt, where the nod swings to making the 5pt.
Typically, though, with 21 in this formation, you lean towards making the 5pt against two checkers but slotting against one. (The greater cost of allowing the last checker to escape alters the incentive structure.) To wit, move that same White spare back to her 24pt and Blue should make the 5pt -- see Variant 2.
Finally, some of you might remember 61P-32Z-21 diagrammed on an early page of Backgammon Openings, Book A. It is worthy of study or review. See the bottom position of this post.
Nack
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 135 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a----EBC---bC-a-cceB-----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Variant 1: A White 8pt spare is backed up 2 pips |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/5 6/5 | eq: +0.147 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.96% (G:12.71% B:0.39%)
47.04% (G:8.37% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.140...+0.154) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: +0.121 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.09% (G:11.73% B:0.40%)
46.91% (G:10.62% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.114...+0.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7 | eq: +0.102 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.01% (G:10.55% B:0.31%)
47.99% (G:7.50% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.096...+0.108) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 13/10 | eq: +0.080 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.65% (G:10.17% B:0.28%)
48.35% (G:7.89% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.068...+0.092) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51764530
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51764530
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b----EBC---bC---cceB-----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Variant 2: White has a second checker back |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/5 6/5 | eq: +0.485 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.31% (G:17.65% B:0.60%)
39.69% (G:7.59% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.023 (+0.462...+0.508) - [99.8%]
Duration: 11 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7 | eq: +0.443 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.27% (G:15.29% B:0.51%)
39.73% (G:6.46% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.430...+0.456) - [0.1%]
Duration: 11 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: +0.441 (-0.044) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.08% (G:16.23% B:0.60%)
39.92% (G:8.89% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.425...+0.456) - [0.1%]
Duration: 12 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/10 | eq: +0.428 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.15% (G:15.15% B:0.49%)
39.85% (G:6.63% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.415...+0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2013160
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 162 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-a--EBB---dD-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| 61P-32Z-21 |