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Quiet Variants (six!)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 8 January 2026, at 1:23 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 01-05-25 - Quiet or Loud - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 129 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-B-bD-C---cCa--B-d-bb-a-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position -- White checker on her 1pt

1.	Rollout1	17/14* 14/13	eq: +0.048
	Player: Opponent: 53.41% (G:8.54% B:0.33%) 46.59% (G:15.83% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.039...+0.057) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/4	eq: +0.025 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 50.52% (G:6.53% B:0.19%) 49.48% (G:9.27% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.016...+0.033) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds
3.	Rollout2	6/2	eq: +0.006 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 49.84% (G:6.11% B:0.18%) 50.16% (G:9.42% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.006...+0.017) - [0.0%] Duration: 34.0 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position. It is only with White's checker on her 1pt, that the "loud" play, hit-and-run, is best. Gradually, we will move that checker higher (pip by pip, up to 6 pips).

Below are six variants, each adding another pip to White's count. Follow the bouncing checker, up to her 7pt, and note the effect on the error size of hit-and-run.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-B-bD-C---cCa--B-d-bba--:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
2pt Variant

1.	Rollout1	8/4	eq: -0.002
	Player: Opponent: 49.86% (G:6.18% B:0.17%) 50.14% (G:9.85% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.007...+0.004) - [99.2%] Duration: 48 minutes 44 seconds
2.	Rollout1	17/14* 14/13	eq: -0.011 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 51.80% (G:8.33% B:0.29%) 48.20% (G:16.86% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.017...-0.006) - [0.7%] Duration: 59 minutes 37 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: -0.016 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 49.41% (G:5.70% B:0.14%) 50.59% (G:9.80% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.022...-0.010) - [0.0%] Duration: 47 minutes 04 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51764530 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 131 Unlimited Game Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-B-bD-C---cCa--B-d-bc---:0:0:1:31:0:0:2:0:10
3pt Variant

1.	Rollout1	8/4	eq: +0.033
	Player: Opponent: 51.11% (G:6.54% B:0.20%) 48.89% (G:9.30% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.027...+0.039) - [100.0%] Duration: 50 minutes 26 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: +0.014 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 50.60% (G:6.11% B:0.17%) 49.40% (G:9.40% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.008...+0.020) - [0.0%] Duration: 48 minutes 54 seconds
3.	Rollout1	17/14* 14/13	eq: -0.012 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 52.13% (G:7.84% B:0.29%) 47.87% (G:16.56% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.019...-0.005) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 14918607 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-B-bD-C---cCa--B-d-cb---:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
4pt Variant

1.	Rollout1	8/4	eq: +0.036
	Player: Opponent: 50.95% (G:6.48% B:0.20%) 49.05% (G:9.51% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.026...+0.047) - [99.3%] Duration: 22 minutes 26 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: +0.017 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 50.41% (G:5.92% B:0.17%) 49.59% (G:9.67% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.006...+0.028) - [0.7%] Duration: 21 minutes 46 seconds
3.	Rollout1	17/14* 14/13	eq: -0.023 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 51.87% (G:7.71% B:0.25%) 48.13% (G:16.51% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.034...-0.012) - [0.0%] Duration: 27 minutes 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 92447966 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 133 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-B-bD-C---cCa--B-dabb---:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
5pt Variant

1.	Rollout1	8/4	eq: +0.006
	Player: Opponent: 50.22% (G:5.74% B:0.14%) 49.78% (G:9.79% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.000...+0.012) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: -0.008 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 49.76% (G:5.29% B:0.13%) 50.24% (G:9.89% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.014...-0.002) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
3.	Rollout1	17/14* 14/13	eq: -0.015 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 51.36% (G:8.46% B:0.27%) 48.64% (G:16.97% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.021...-0.008) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2013160 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 134 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-B-bD-C---cCa--B-e-bb---:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
6pt Variant

1.	Rollout1	8/4	eq: +0.057
	Player: Opponent: 51.76% (G:6.31% B:0.17%) 48.24% (G:9.54% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.045...+0.068) - [97.2%] Duration: 23 minutes 08 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: +0.041 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 51.29% (G:5.49% B:0.17%) 48.71% (G:9.15% B:0.22%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.031...+0.052) - [2.8%] Duration: 21 minutes 44 seconds
3.	Rollout1	17/14* 14/13	eq: +0.012 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 52.34% (G:8.03% B:0.25%) 47.66% (G:15.75% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (0.000...+0.025) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 54 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 53270940 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 135 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-B-bD-C---cCa--Bad-bb---:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
7pt Variant

1.	Rollout1	8/4	eq: +0.038
	Player: Opponent: 51.10% (G:6.09% B:0.19%) 48.90% (G:9.94% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.026...+0.049) - [92.1%] Duration: 22 minutes 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: +0.026 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 50.82% (G:5.58% B:0.14%) 49.18% (G:10.08% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.015...+0.037) - [7.9%] Duration: 22 minutes 03 seconds
3.	Rollout1	17/14* 14/13	eq: -0.035 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 51.24% (G:7.94% B:0.27%) 48.76% (G:17.01% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.047...-0.023) - [0.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 37 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 4258594 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 01-05-25 - Quiet or Loud
  Stick -- Monday, 5 January 2026, at 5:16 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-05-25 - Quiet or Loud
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 5 January 2026, at 10:29 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-05-25 - Quiet or Loud
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 6 January 2026, at 2:15 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-05-25 - Quiet or Loud
    Francesco -- Tuesday, 6 January 2026, at 8:41 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-05-25 - Quiet or Loud
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 6 January 2026, at 2:43 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-05-25 - Quiet or Loud - Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 7 January 2026, at 5:34 p.m.
    • Quiet Variants (six!)
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 8 January 2026, at 1:23 a.m.