[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

PotD 01-09-26 - Cube Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 12 January 2026, at 5:51 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 01-09-26 - Holding Game Cube - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--BB-BB-B---bB-a-bbdBb-bA-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.15% (G:13.09% B:0.23%) 75.54% (G:13.65% B:0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.85% (G:3.44% B:0.09%) 24.46% (G:3.68% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.601 +1.224
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.890 (-0.110)±0.007 (+0.883..+0.897)
Double/Take:+1.065 (+0.065)±0.012 (+1.054..+1.077)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 32.5 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Stick commented on the weakness of Opp's 4pt gap contributing to her position (above) being a solid pass. The two variants below address that theme. When White's 4pt is slotted, the position becomes a (small) take. When her 4pt is made, the position becomes a borderline double / no double.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-BbDBB-A-bB---a-bbabb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 4pt is slotted

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.85% (G:12.97% B:0.31%) 74.26% (G:12.94% B:0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.15% (G:4.09% B:0.10%) 25.74% (G:4.19% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.568 +1.150
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.869 (-0.126)±0.003 (+0.866..+0.873)
Double/Take:+0.995±0.006 (+0.989..+1.001)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.005)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2013160
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:95.1%
Duration: 27 minutes 42 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-BbDBB-A-bB-----bbbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 4pt is made

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.26% (G:10.31% B:0.15%) 71.46% (G:10.29% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.74% (G:4.85% B:0.11%) 28.54% (G:5.07% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.480 +0.964
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.802 (-0.003)±0.002 (+0.801..+0.804)
Double/Take:+0.806±0.002 (+0.803..+0.808)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.194)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92447966
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:98.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.