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Bot Battle #119 - Three variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 13 January 2026, at 5:27 a.m.

In Response To: Bot Battle #119 Rollout (Jason Lee)

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 161 9 point match pip: 166 score: 7 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-Da--bCc--c-cBa---A:0:0:1:44:7:2:0:9:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 20/16(2) 13/9*	eq: +0.063
	Player: Opponent: 55.97% (G:19.48% B:1.95%) 44.03% (G:11.25% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.046...+0.080) - [100.0%] Duration: 38 minutes 28 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 13/9* 8/4(2)	eq: +0.016 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 53.06% (G:20.61% B:1.93%) 46.94% (G:9.66% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.002...+0.033) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 48 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 13/9* 6/2(2)	eq: -0.028 (-0.091)
	Player: Opponent: 52.27% (G:20.33% B:1.98%) 47.73% (G:10.34% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.046...-0.009) - [0.0%] Duration: 47 minutes 28 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 13/9*(3)	eq: -0.031 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 52.39% (G:17.98% B:1.91%) 47.61% (G:9.77% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.049...-0.013) - [0.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 92447966 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Jason's rollout of the original position.

Below are three contrasting variants. In the set of four positions, three different best plays are represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 161 9 point match pip: 166 score: 7 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-Da--bCc--c-cBa---A:0:0:1:44:7:2:0:9:10
Variant 1: A White 8pt spare is moved to her 11pt

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 20/16(2) 13/9*	eq: +0.063
	Player: Opponent: 55.97% (G:19.48% B:1.95%) 44.03% (G:11.25% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.046...+0.080) - [100.0%] Duration: 38 minutes 28 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 13/9* 8/4(2)	eq: +0.016 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 53.06% (G:20.61% B:1.93%) 46.94% (G:9.66% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.002...+0.033) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 48 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 13/9* 6/2(2)	eq: -0.028 (-0.091)
	Player: Opponent: 52.27% (G:20.33% B:1.98%) 47.73% (G:10.34% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.046...-0.009) - [0.0%] Duration: 47 minutes 28 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 13/9*(3)	eq: -0.031 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 52.39% (G:17.98% B:1.91%) 47.61% (G:9.77% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.049...-0.013) - [0.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 11 seconds
5.	1-ply	Bar/21* 20/16 13/9*(2)	eq: -0.056 (-0.119)
	Player: Opponent: 52.14% (G:15.95% B:0.52%) 47.86% (G:10.02% B:0.37%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 92447966 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 156 9 point match pip: 166 score: 7 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-Da--bCb--bbcBa---A:0:0:1:44:7:2:0:9:10
Variant 2: White owns her 7pt

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 20/16(2) 13/9*	eq: -0.022
	Player: Opponent: 54.02% (G:18.73% B:1.89%) 45.98% (G:12.37% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.034...-0.010) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 13/9* 8/4(2)	eq: -0.059 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 51.22% (G:19.62% B:1.80%) 48.78% (G:9.90% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.075...-0.042) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/21* 13/9*(3)	eq: -0.140 (-0.119)
	Player: Opponent: 49.43% (G:16.95% B:1.30%) 50.57% (G:10.11% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.160...-0.121) - [0.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 25 seconds
4.	Rollout2	Bar/21* 13/9* 6/2(2)	eq: -0.160 (-0.139)
	Player: Opponent: 48.97% (G:19.16% B:1.81%) 51.03% (G:10.95% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.182...-0.139) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 38 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2013160 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2013160 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 160 9 point match pip: 166 score: 7 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-Da--bCb--d-dB----A:0:0:1:44:7:2:0:9:10
Variant 3: The White 4pt blot is moved to her 6pt

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/9*(3)	eq: -0.059
	Player: Opponent: 51.14% (G:11.48% B:0.70%) 48.86% (G:7.80% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.069...-0.048) - [99.8%] Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/9* 8/4(2)	eq: -0.083 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 50.64% (G:13.81% B:1.18%) 49.36% (G:9.07% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.093...-0.073) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/21 13/9* 6/2(2)	eq: -0.134 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 48.98% (G:13.77% B:1.27%) 51.02% (G:9.29% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.047 (-0.181...-0.086) - [0.1%] Duration: 24 minutes 22 seconds
4.	Rollout2	Bar/21 20/16(2) 13/9*	eq: -0.179 (-0.121)
	Player: Opponent: 50.77% (G:12.87% B:1.26%) 49.23% (G:13.75% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.193...-0.165) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 43 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51764530 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51764530 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Bot Battle #119
  Jason Lee -- Saturday, 10 January 2026, at 12:23 a.m.
  • Bot Battle #119
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 10 January 2026, at 7:10 p.m.
    • Bot Battle #119
      ah_clem -- Saturday, 10 January 2026, at 8:30 p.m.
  • Bot Battle #119
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 11 January 2026, at 9:37 p.m.
  • Bot Battle #119 Rollout
    Jason Lee -- Monday, 12 January 2026, at 3:02 p.m.
    • Bot Battle #119 - Three variants
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 January 2026, at 5:27 a.m.