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PotD 01-10-25 - Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 13 January 2026, at 5:39 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 01-10-25 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 65
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBCB----------Bb-bdccB:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.37% (G:8.12% B:0.23%) 70.80% (G:8.38% B:0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.63% (G:16.14% B:0.03%) 29.20% (G:16.26% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.329 +0.679
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.682±0.010 (+0.672..+0.692)
Redouble/Take:+0.595 (-0.087)±0.015 (+0.581..+0.610)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.318)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 27.3 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original cube decision.

Below are two variants. White has her 4pt or 3pt instead of her 5pt. Instructive differences in cube decision.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 67
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBCB----------Bbb-dccB:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's gap is on her 4pt instead of her 5pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.68% (G:11.37% B:0.36%) 72.02% (G:11.90% B:0.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.32% (G:14.61% B:0.03%) 27.98% (G:14.94% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.405 +0.828
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.722 (-0.029)±0.008 (+0.714..+0.731)
Redouble/Take:+0.751±0.015 (+0.737..+0.766)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.249)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53270940
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 08 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 66
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBCB----------Bbbb-ddB:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's gap is on her 3pt instead of her 5pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.70% (G:18.88% B:0.74%) 76.10% (G:19.03% B:0.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.30% (G:11.99% B:0.02%) 23.90% (G:12.41% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.590 +1.192
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.829 (-0.171)±0.006 (+0.822..+0.835)
Redouble/Take:+1.102 (+0.102)±0.013 (+1.089..+1.114)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2013160
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 11 seconds

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