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Preparing to bear off

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 15 January 2026, at 8:01 p.m.

In Response To: Preparing to bear off (Francesco)

To add to what others have said already, it takes the opponent's immediate aces and makes them much more valuable when hitting your blot. Either way (4/3 or 3/2 with your ace) he should hit with those rolls but when you play 3/2 leaving two inner board blots so that when he hits you and you hit back it's a minor tragedy. His rough and tumble equity goes from about -.250 to roughly even. (loosely rounded numbers, don't get too far into it)

What you were probably thinking is that 3/2 is better for the race and most of the time this is going to be a race right? Well, that's true. The main issue against that has already been discussed but what should also be mentioned is while coming around the board aren't you likely to roll an ace or a deuce that is better used to split off those checkers rather than push your outfield checker a pip anyway? So why do it now when there's the hit + hit back repercussion when you can wait, do it later, and avoid that downside?

Also worth mentioning I don't think that every opponent you play will know to hit with the smaller aces [41 31 21] if you don't play 3/2. When they see the two inner board blots they'll hit for sure. You may inadvertently keep them from making a blunder of their own by playing 3/2.

Stick

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