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PotD 01-15-25 - Unlazy Variants (three)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 19 January 2026, at 1:56 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 01-15-25 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 88
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-----CBBBBb------AbcbbAdB-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.41% (G:33.57% B:4.50%) 57.04% (G:33.30% B:4.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.59% (G:5.21% B:0.24%) 42.96% (G:5.01% B:0.23%)
Cubeless Equities +0.474 +0.937
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.656±0.013 (+0.643..+0.669)
Redouble/Take:+0.564 (-0.092)±0.021 (+0.543..+0.585)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.344)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 57.1 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants.

Four positions: four different cube actions.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 92
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bCaBBDBa------Bbbbbc-----:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: One 2pt spare moved to 6pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.09% (G:35.22% B:4.83%) 61.94% (G:36.04% B:5.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.91% (G:4.07% B:0.18%) 38.06% (G:4.51% B:0.20%)
Cubeless Equities +0.600 +1.218
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.785 (-0.089)±0.011 (+0.774..+0.796)
Redouble/Take:+0.874±0.021 (+0.853..+0.896)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.126)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69864907
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 21 minutes 26 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 96
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBaBBEBa------Bbbbbc-----:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Two 2pt spares moved to 6pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.13% (G:35.95% B:4.97%) 66.04% (G:35.87% B:5.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.87% (G:3.42% B:0.13%) 33.96% (G:3.36% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities +0.696 +1.394
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.885 (-0.115)±0.009 (+0.875..+0.894)
Redouble/Take:+1.104 (+0.104)±0.021 (+1.082..+1.125)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32613547
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 47 minutes 52 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 98
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-baBBBEBa------Bbbbbc-----:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Also, swap 2pt with 3pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.73% (G:37.92% B:5.22%) 71.59% (G:38.06% B:5.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.27% (G:2.26% B:0.10%) 28.41% (G:2.31% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.842 +1.695
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.001±0.011 (+0.991..+1.012)
Redouble/Take:+1.452 (+0.450)±0.020 (+1.432..+1.471)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.001)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99958016
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:58.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 06 seconds

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