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PotD 01-16-25 - Four Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 20 January 2026, at 3:35 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 01-16-25 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-C--AdD--ab-d-bB---:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	13/7 11/7	eq: +0.416
	Player: Opponent: 59.58% (G:18.79% B:0.72%) 40.42% (G:9.97% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.402...+0.430) - [100.0%] Duration: 48.5 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16* 13/9	eq: +0.353 (-0.063)
	Player: Opponent: 58.20% (G:19.20% B:1.42%) 41.80% (G:12.91% B:0.80%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.335...+0.370) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 00 second
3.	Rollout1	8/2* 6/2	eq: +0.326 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 55.65% (G:22.06% B:1.19%) 44.35% (G:10.88% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.312...+0.341) - [0.0%] Duration: 48.9 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are four variants. Altogether, five positions with four different best plays.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 155 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-D-B--AdD--ab-d-bB---:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: Blue's 8pt spare is moved to his 6pt

1.	Rollout1	8/2* 6/2	eq: +0.384
	Player: Opponent: 56.67% (G:24.27% B:1.23%) 43.33% (G:10.99% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.376...+0.393) - [99.9%] Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 11/7	eq: +0.367 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 58.22% (G:19.82% B:0.75%) 41.78% (G:10.31% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.360...+0.374) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
3.	Rollout2	22/16* 6/2*	eq: +0.337 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 57.36% (G:19.67% B:1.31%) 42.64% (G:13.00% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.321...+0.353) - [0.0%] Duration: 34 minutes 22 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/16* 13/9	eq: +0.322 (-0.062)
	Player: Opponent: 57.26% (G:19.68% B:1.37%) 42.74% (G:12.91% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.306...+0.339) - [0.0%] Duration: 33 minutes 56 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 20101924 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 20101924 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-C--AdD--ab-db-B---:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's owns her 5pt instead of her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	22/16* 13/9	eq: +0.298
	Player: Opponent: 56.96% (G:18.67% B:1.24%) 43.04% (G:12.90% B:0.71%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.286...+0.311) - [99.9%] Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 11/7	eq: +0.271 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 56.20% (G:17.71% B:0.81%) 43.80% (G:10.90% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.261...+0.282) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
3.	Rollout1	22/18 22/16*	eq: +0.266 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 56.71% (G:16.02% B:1.06%) 43.29% (G:13.08% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.254...+0.278) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
4.	Rollout1	8/2* 6/2	eq: +0.257 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 54.48% (G:22.15% B:1.15%) 45.52% (G:11.66% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.246...+0.269) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 63081018 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 155 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB--C-C--AdD--ab-d-bB---:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue owns his 3pt instead of his 4pt

1.	Rollout1	22/16* 13/9	eq: +0.273
	Player: Opponent: 56.25% (G:18.97% B:1.40%) 43.75% (G:13.67% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.264...+0.282) - [99.9%] Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/2* 6/2	eq: +0.254 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 54.46% (G:21.50% B:1.20%) 45.54% (G:11.76% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.246...+0.263) - [0.1%] Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/7 11/7	eq: +0.237 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 55.10% (G:17.54% B:0.72%) 44.90% (G:11.15% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.226...+0.247) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 35348293 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 35348293 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 161 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-C--AdDa-ab-c-bB---:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: A White 13pt spare is on her 11pt

1.	Rollout1	22/16* 6/2*	eq: +0.348
	Player: Opponent: 56.64% (G:21.57% B:1.88%) 43.36% (G:12.35% B:0.75%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.340...+0.356) - [60.3%] Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/16* 13/9	eq: +0.346 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 56.92% (G:20.59% B:1.68%) 43.08% (G:12.43% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.337...+0.355) - [39.7%] Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/7 11/7	eq: +0.316 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 56.61% (G:19.33% B:0.89%) 43.39% (G:10.58% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.305...+0.327) - [0.0%] Duration: 57 minutes 18 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/2* 6/2	eq: +0.302 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 54.24% (G:23.35% B:1.87%) 45.76% (G:11.02% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.290...+0.314) - [0.0%] Duration: 59 minutes 11 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 69864907 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 69864907 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 01-16-25
  Stick -- Saturday, 17 January 2026, at 9:03 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-16-25
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 17 January 2026, at 9:42 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-16-25
    negheonegu -- Sunday, 18 January 2026, at 4:24 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-16-25
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 19 January 2026, at 8:46 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-16-25 - Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 20 January 2026, at 3:11 a.m.
    • PotD 01-16-25 - Four Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 20 January 2026, at 3:35 p.m.