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Ducks - Three Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 21 January 2026, at 2:34 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 01-17-25 - Ducks - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 173 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--AD-D---dC---cabba--BA:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 5/1*	eq: -0.271
	Player: Opponent: 43.17% (G:13.64% B:0.61%) 56.83% (G:17.42% B:1.06%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.290...-0.252) - [99.6%] Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 6/4(2)	eq: -0.308 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 42.73% (G:13.03% B:0.79%) 57.27% (G:18.11% B:1.35%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.328...-0.288) - [0.4%] Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 24/22(2)	eq: -0.390 (-0.119)
	Player: Opponent: 41.04% (G:10.33% B:0.58%) 58.96% (G:17.92% B:0.89%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.410...-0.370) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants. Altogether, three different best plays are represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 161 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 173 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--AD-D---eC---babba--BA:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 8pt spare is back on her midpoint

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 6/4(2)	eq: -0.185
	Player: Opponent: 45.41% (G:13.94% B:0.86%) 54.59% (G:16.44% B:1.09%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.198...-0.171) - [94.3%] Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 5/1*	eq: -0.200 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 44.62% (G:14.55% B:0.63%) 55.38% (G:16.50% B:0.90%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.214...-0.187) - [5.7%] Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 65683010 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 166 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 173 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab--AD-D---cC---cabba--BA:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White has a third checker back

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 6/4(2)	eq: -0.147
	Player: Opponent: 46.22% (G:15.39% B:1.14%) 53.78% (G:16.55% B:1.10%) Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.168...-0.125) - [100.0%] Duration: 54 minutes 41 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 5/1*	eq: -0.214 (-0.067)
	Player: Opponent: 44.67% (G:15.02% B:0.66%) 55.33% (G:16.87% B:1.09%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.233...-0.194) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 79965847 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 171 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--AD-D---dC---cabba-B-A:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue owns his 23pt instead of his 24pt

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 6/4(2)	eq: -0.294
	Player: Opponent: 42.91% (G:13.15% B:0.86%) 57.09% (G:17.58% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.308...-0.281) - [99.9%] Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 5/1*	eq: -0.324 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 42.26% (G:13.05% B:0.60%) 57.74% (G:17.56% B:0.90%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.337...-0.311) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
3.	Rollout1	Bar/21* 23/21(2)	eq: -0.328 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 42.13% (G:10.42% B:0.50%) 57.87% (G:14.99% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.341...-0.314) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 48226825 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 01-17-25 - Ducks
  Stick -- Sunday, 18 January 2026, at 10:09 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-17-25 - Ducks
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Sunday, 18 January 2026, at 3:36 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-17-25 - Ducks
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 18 January 2026, at 4:00 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-17-25 - Ducks
    negheonegu -- Monday, 19 January 2026, at 5:39 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-17-25 - Ducks
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 19 January 2026, at 8:53 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 01-17-25 - Ducks
      Stick -- Monday, 19 January 2026, at 10:51 p.m.
      • Position of the Day 01-17-25 - Ducks
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 20 January 2026, at 3:23 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-17-25 - Ducks - Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 20 January 2026, at 6:19 p.m.
    • Ducks - Three Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 January 2026, at 2:34 a.m.
      • Ducks - Three Variants
        Stick -- Wednesday, 21 January 2026, at 6:31 a.m.
        • Clarification
          Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 25 January 2026, at 2:27 a.m.
          • Cluelessification
            Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 25 January 2026, at 2:35 a.m.