A tough play to make I think for many reasons. First, the opp's offensive position/board is so strong we typically flat out don't leave direct shots unless we have to. Here we have a play that doesn't leave a shot but boy is it ugly. It certainly rates to leave more shots down the line than leaving just the single direct now.
I'm a proponent of setting up plays to see how they look. (sometimes, let's not overdo it) This problem is a good example. If you set up all three plays I rolled out I feel like on the eyesight test alone it will steer you strongly towards the correct play.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 133
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
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| XGID=-b---AG-C---cB---bBbbbb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/2 | eq: -0.125 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.90% (G:12.10% B:0.34%)
52.10% (G:17.26% B:0.61%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.138...-0.111) - [100.0%]
Duration: 47.2 seconds |
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/4 5/4 | eq: -0.217 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.87% (G:10.75% B:0.32%)
55.13% (G:17.75% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.229...-0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.3 seconds |
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/5 | eq: -0.272 (-0.147) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.87% (G:11.82% B:0.34%)
55.13% (G:20.34% B:0.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.284...-0.260) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.7 seconds |
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| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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