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PotD 01-18-25 - Three Variants
Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 22 January 2026, at 12:26 a.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 01-18-25 - Rollout (Stick)
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 133
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AG-C---cB---bBbbbb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Original Position |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/2 | eq: -0.125 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.90% (G:12.10% B:0.34%)
52.10% (G:17.26% B:0.61%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.138...-0.111) - [100.0%]
Duration: 47.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/4 5/4 | eq: -0.217 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.87% (G:10.75% B:0.32%)
55.13% (G:17.75% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.229...-0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.3 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/5 | eq: -0.272 (-0.147) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.87% (G:11.82% B:0.34%)
55.13% (G:20.34% B:0.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.284...-0.260) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.7 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are three contrasting variants.
Nack
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 135
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AF-D---cB---bBbbbb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Variant 1: One of Blue's 6pt spares is on his 8pt |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 5/4 | eq: -0.034 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.35% (G:11.65% B:0.29%)
50.65% (G:14.89% B:0.46%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.045...-0.022) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/2 | eq: -0.073 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.80% (G:11.48% B:0.32%)
51.20% (G:16.30% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.086...-0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/5 | eq: -0.110 (-0.076) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.30% (G:12.92% B:0.40%)
51.70% (G:18.03% B:0.55%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.122...-0.098) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65683010
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AG-C---cB-B-b-bbbb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Variant 2: Blue's anchor is changed from 18pt to 15pt |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 5/4 | eq: -0.031 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.90% (G:10.59% B:0.32%)
51.10% (G:16.12% B:0.47%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.045...-0.018) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/2 | eq: -0.066 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.84% (G:10.90% B:0.35%)
50.16% (G:17.86% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.078...-0.054) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79965847
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 133
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AG-C---cB---bBbbbb---:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Variant 3: Roll is changed from 41 to 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/4 5/4 | eq: -0.035 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.29% (G:11.30% B:0.28%)
50.71% (G:14.93% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.047...-0.023) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/4 | eq: -0.115 (-0.080) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.17% (G:13.13% B:0.42%)
51.83% (G:17.85% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.129...-0.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/5 | eq: -0.133 (-0.098) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.91% (G:11.48% B:0.34%)
53.09% (G:16.69% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.146...-0.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 24 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 48226825
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
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