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Position of the Day 01-21-25 - We know it's a cube II - Rollout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026, at 1:15 a.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 01-21-25 - We know it's a cube II (Stick)
It's unusual when pushing our inner board blot to worse points to lessen shots is desired. Normally the opp's offensive position isn't so strong that the swing rests absolutely on minimizing shots. See variants below.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 121 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 110
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=a-AC--D-C---cB----Bcbbbb--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 70.20% (G:25.41% B:0.29%) | 70.20% (G:25.99% B:0.40%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.80% (G:2.80% B:0.06%) | 29.80% (G:2.86% B:0.06%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.632 | +1.278 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.664 (-0.336) | ±0.009 (+0.655..+0.674) |
| Double/Take: | +1.056 (+0.056) | ±0.012 (+1.044..+1.068) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 33.9 seconds |
Variant #1
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 120 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 110
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=aA-C--D-C---cB----Bcbbbb--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.11% (G:25.14% B:0.29%) | 68.83% (G:25.99% B:0.44%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.89% (G:3.02% B:0.05%) | 31.17% (G:3.04% B:0.06%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.606 | +1.220 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.621 (-0.357) | ±0.011 (+0.610..+0.631) |
| Double/Take: | +0.978 | ±0.015 (+0.963..+0.992) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.022) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 99.8% |
| Duration: 33.1 seconds |
Variant #2
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 124 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 110
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=a--C-AD-C---cB----Bcbbbb--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 70.40% (G:30.00% B:0.30%) | 70.27% (G:31.26% B:0.38%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.60% (G:3.29% B:0.08%) | 29.73% (G:3.63% B:0.11%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.677 | +1.369 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.628 (-0.372) | ±0.009 (+0.619..+0.637) |
| Double/Take: | +1.140 (+0.140) | ±0.013 (+1.127..+1.153) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 31.6 seconds |
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