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PotD 01-23-26 - Multiple Variants, Five Best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 29 January 2026, at 6:08 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 01-23-26 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 144 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 150 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Aa---D-C---cE-abcBe------:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	8/1	eq: -0.129
	Player: Opponent: 45.60% (G:9.18% B:0.16%) 54.40% (G:10.20% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.135...-0.122) - [78.8%] Duration: 3 minutes 07 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/6	eq: -0.132 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 45.79% (G:8.40% B:0.16%) 54.21% (G:9.96% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.138...-0.126) - [21.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds
3.	Rollout2	18/14 18/15*	eq: -0.154 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 47.15% (G:9.87% B:0.39%) 52.85% (G:16.15% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.171...-0.137) - [0.2%] Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/10 13/9	eq: -0.156 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 45.45% (G:8.90% B:0.19%) 54.55% (G:10.21% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.169...-0.144) - [0.0%] Duration: 57.4 seconds
5.	Rollout2	18/15* 15/11	eq: -0.177 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 46.78% (G:10.34% B:0.43%) 53.22% (G:16.74% B:0.71%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.191...-0.163) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are four contrasting variants. In each case, one White checker has been adjusted exactly 3 or 4 pips from the original position.

Altogether, there are five positions and five different best plays are represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 150 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Aa---D-C---bE-accBe------:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 13pt spare is on her 9pt

1.	Rollout1	18/14 18/15*	eq: -0.118
	Player: Opponent: 48.03% (G:9.79% B:0.39%) 51.97% (G:16.56% B:0.75%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.133...-0.102) - [100.0%] Duration: 57 minutes 15 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/6	eq: -0.232 (-0.115)
	Player: Opponent: 43.00% (G:7.12% B:0.14%) 57.00% (G:10.92% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.249...-0.216) - [0.0%] Duration: 33 minutes 05 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/1	eq: -0.232 (-0.115)
	Player: Opponent: 42.92% (G:7.80% B:0.16%) 57.08% (G:10.66% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.245...-0.220) - [0.0%] Duration: 37 minutes 40 seconds
4.	Rollout1	18/15* 15/11	eq: -0.239 (-0.121)
	Player: Opponent: 45.14% (G:9.48% B:0.44%) 54.86% (G:17.55% B:0.87%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.254...-0.223) - [0.0%] Duration: 59 minutes 14 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/10 13/9	eq: -0.242 (-0.124)
	Player: Opponent: 42.98% (G:8.30% B:0.22%) 57.02% (G:10.65% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.255...-0.228) - [0.0%] Duration: 48 minutes 13 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 20277832 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 150 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Aa---D-C---cE-accBd------:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 6pt spare is on her 9pt

1.	Rollout1	13/6	eq: -0.105
	Player: Opponent: 46.54% (G:7.99% B:0.13%) 53.46% (G:9.28% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.111...-0.099) - [99.8%] Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/1	eq: -0.117 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 45.92% (G:9.09% B:0.14%) 54.08% (G:9.79% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.123...-0.111) - [0.2%] Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/10 13/9	eq: -0.132 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 45.77% (G:8.53% B:0.16%) 54.23% (G:8.98% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.141...-0.123) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
4.	Rollout3	18/14 18/15*	eq: -0.167 (-0.062)
	Player: Opponent: 46.48% (G:9.78% B:0.34%) 53.52% (G:15.72% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.184...-0.150) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 44 seconds
5.	Rollout3	18/15* 15/11	eq: -0.236 (-0.131)
	Player: Opponent: 45.03% (G:9.93% B:0.33%) 54.97% (G:16.42% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.253...-0.220) - [0.0%] Duration: 27 minutes 00 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74352953 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74352953 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74352953 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 141 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 150 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Aa---D-C---cE-abcBd--a---:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White's 6pt spare is on her 3pt

1.	Rollout1	13/10 13/9	eq: -0.150
	Player: Opponent: 45.27% (G:9.87% B:0.25%) 54.73% (G:10.70% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.164...-0.135) - [99.9%] Duration: 22 minutes 35 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/15* 15/11	eq: -0.185 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 46.53% (G:11.01% B:0.55%) 53.47% (G:18.39% B:0.82%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.201...-0.170) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 11 seconds
3.	Rollout1	18/14 18/15*	eq: -0.186 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 46.73% (G:9.85% B:0.45%) 53.27% (G:17.82% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.202...-0.170) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 38 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/1	eq: -0.195 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 43.90% (G:8.85% B:0.17%) 56.10% (G:10.53% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.208...-0.183) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 05 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/6	eq: -0.203 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 44.12% (G:8.24% B:0.17%) 55.88% (G:11.54% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.215...-0.191) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72736496 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 150 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Aa---D-C---cE-abcBd---a--:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White's 6pt spare is on her 2pt

1.	Rollout1	18/15* 15/11	eq: -0.134
	Player: Opponent: 47.74% (G:11.16% B:0.52%) 52.26% (G:17.29% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.142...-0.126) - [99.3%] Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/10 13/9	eq: -0.147 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 45.47% (G:10.34% B:0.25%) 54.53% (G:11.10% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.153...-0.140) - [0.7%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
3.	Rollout2	18/14 18/15*	eq: -0.156 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 47.55% (G:10.31% B:0.44%) 52.45% (G:17.77% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.167...-0.145) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 21 seconds
4.	Rollout3	13/6	eq: -0.208 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 43.84% (G:7.98% B:0.15%) 56.16% (G:10.38% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.219...-0.197) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds
5.	Rollout3	8/1	eq: -0.218 (-0.084)
	Player: Opponent: 43.54% (G:8.70% B:0.15%) 56.46% (G:10.48% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.230...-0.207) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 12 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 48226825 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 48226825 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 48226825 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 01-23-26
  Stick -- Sunday, 25 January 2026, at 9:10 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-23-26
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 25 January 2026, at 1:44 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-23-26
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 25 January 2026, at 5:25 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-23-26
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Sunday, 25 January 2026, at 7:03 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 01-23-26
      Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Sunday, 25 January 2026, at 7:51 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-23-26
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 25 January 2026, at 7:34 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 01-23-26 - Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 28 January 2026, at 9:57 a.m.
    • PotD 01-23-26 - Multiple Variants, Five Best plays
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 29 January 2026, at 6:08 a.m.
    • Position of the Day 01-23-26 - Rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 29 January 2026, at 4:30 p.m.