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PotD 01-30-26 - Cube Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 7 February 2026, at 3:53 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 01-30-26 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 177
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BABB-----aCba--acBbCbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.34% (G:30.09% B:2.86%) 69.71% (G:30.83% B:2.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.66% (G:14.65% B:0.50%) 30.29% (G:14.96% B:0.55%)
Cubeless Equities +0.565 +1.154
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.794 (-0.148)±0.008 (+0.786..+0.802)
Redouble/Take:+0.942±0.018 (+0.924..+0.960)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.058)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants covering a range of cobe actions that flank the original position's cube action, two on each side.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 174
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BABB---A-aBba--acBbCbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A Blue 13pt spare is on the 10pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.94% (G:36.91% B:3.84%) 76.45% (G:37.45% B:3.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.06% (G:10.43% B:0.46%) 23.55% (G:10.65% B:0.67%)
Cubeless Equities +0.817 +1.659
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.002±0.006 (+0.997..+1.008)
Redouble/Take:+1.494 (+0.492)±0.011 (+1.483..+1.505)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.002)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.5%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34171913
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:78.6%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 45 minutes 47 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 175
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BABB-----aCba--acCbBbb-:1:1:1:D:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A Blue 22pt spare is on the 20pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.46% (G:30.76% B:2.80%) 70.73% (G:31.35% B:2.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.54% (G:13.24% B:0.36%) 29.27% (G:13.41% B:0.36%)
Cubeless Equities +0.609 +1.238
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.824 (-0.176)±0.011 (+0.813..+0.836)
Redouble/Take:+1.018 (+0.018)±0.025 (+0.994..+1.043)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 48198863
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:92.7%
Duration: 15 minutes 19 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 175
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-AB-BB-----aCba--acBbCbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: The Blue 4pt blot is on the 2pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.81% (G:24.84% B:2.35%) 61.12% (G:25.32% B:2.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.19% (G:19.56% B:0.77%) 38.88% (G:19.51% B:0.69%)
Cubeless Equities +0.285 +0.596
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.534±0.014 (+0.520..+0.548)
Redouble/Take:+0.314 (-0.220)±0.027 (+0.288..+0.341)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.466)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26122567
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 53 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 169
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-BA-B-----aCba--acBbCbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4:

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 52.84% (G:22.08% B:1.62%) 52.71% (G:22.19% B:1.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.16% (G:21.25% B:0.75%) 47.29% (G:21.49% B:0.81%)
Cubeless Equities +0.074 +0.142
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.276
Redouble/Beaver:-0.400 (-0.676)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.724)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 32.6%

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