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Position of the Day 02-08-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 11 February 2026, at 6:46 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-08-26 (Stick)

No traction with this one. I'll blame Bad Bunny ... or Kid Rock ... Hard to let this one go when it's so easy to see if we roll decent we're in it. However, the opponent can roll well and we're cooked or we can roll poorly and we're cooked. A couple of ways it can break wrong. Check out the variant below where I've moved our position back a pip giving us a much appreciated spare on the bar point. Even that isn't enough to turn it.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 126
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bBBB-DB----ca-a--bbbbA-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.94% (G:22.63% B:1.20%) 73.62% (G:23.59% B:1.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.06% (G:9.32% B:0.91%) 26.38% (G:8.89% B:0.79%)
Cubeless Equities +0.595 +1.251
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.817 (-0.183)±0.007 (+0.810..+0.823)
Double/Take:+1.078 (+0.078)±0.009 (+1.068..+1.087)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds

Variant
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bBBB-CC----ca-a--bbbbA-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.02% (G:22.39% B:1.17%) 72.56% (G:23.15% B:1.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.98% (G:9.75% B:0.99%) 27.44% (G:9.26% B:0.83%)
Cubeless Equities +0.569 +1.191
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.795 (-0.205)±0.008 (+0.788..+0.803)
Double/Take:+1.015 (+0.015)±0.011 (+1.004..+1.025)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.7%
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds

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