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Another Pointless Double? - Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 12:15 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-04-26 - Another Pointless Double? - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-----ACBC---bB-cAeBe---A--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.36% (G:20.20% B:0.55%) 67.79% (G:20.39% B:0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.64% (G:6.01% B:0.22%) 32.21% (G:5.96% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities +0.493 +1.007
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.741 (-0.026)±0.007 (+0.734..+0.748)
Double/Take:+0.767±0.009 (+0.758..+0.777)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.233)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 21 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position. The proper cube action is D/T.

Below are contrasting variants. One supports ND/T and the other D/P.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----EbEaC-bB---cbca-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 23pt blot is on her 24pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.77% (G:19.37% B:0.64%) 64.62% (G:19.74% B:0.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.23% (G:6.67% B:0.25%) 35.38% (G:6.87% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities +0.426 +0.850
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.643±0.018 (+0.625..+0.661)
Double/Take:+0.583 (-0.060)±0.023 (+0.560..+0.606)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.357)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91241819
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 55 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----a-EbEaC-bB---cbca-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 23pt blot is on her 21pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.95% (G:14.34% B:0.25%) 74.91% (G:15.69% B:0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.05% (G:3.16% B:0.10%) 25.09% (G:3.40% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.612 +1.247
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.966 (-0.034)±0.011 (+0.955..+0.978)
Double/Take:+1.082 (+0.082)±0.017 (+1.065..+1.099)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62831337
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds

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