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PotD 02-07-26 - Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 12:47 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-07-26 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 100 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 100 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=--aCBBD-Ca---a-----cbbcb-A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.66% (G:8.60% B:0.13%)	77.14% (G:8.28% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.34% (G:3.38% B:0.13%)	22.86% (G:3.42% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.586	+1.183
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.870 (-0.130)	±0.003 (+0.867..+0.873)
Redouble/Take:	+1.018 (+0.018)	±0.005 (+1.012..+1.023)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 58.7 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

The variant below, which adjusts a spare by 1 pip, is one way to slide the position from a pass to a take. The difference of .04 is non-trivial, though.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 100 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 99 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-CBBBC-----A---Ac-dbbcA--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.32% (G:8.11% B:0.12%)	76.55% (G:7.97% B:0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.68% (G:3.29% B:0.12%)	23.45% (G:3.35% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.575	+1.154
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.860 (-0.119)	±0.006 (+0.854..+0.865)
Redouble/Take:	+0.979	±0.008 (+0.971..+0.987)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.021)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62831337 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 02-07-26
  Stick -- Sunday, 8 February 2026, at 6:06 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-07-26
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 8 February 2026, at 3:22 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-07-26
    Colin Owen -- Sunday, 8 February 2026, at 4:02 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-07-26
    negheonegu -- Sunday, 8 February 2026, at 6:59 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-07-26 - Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 11 February 2026, at 6:39 a.m.
    • PotD 02-07-26 - Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 12:47 p.m.