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PotD 02-08-26 - Variants (Five different cube actions)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 8:50 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-08-26 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 126
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bBBB-DB----ca-a--bbbbA-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.94% (G:22.63% B:1.20%) 73.62% (G:23.59% B:1.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.06% (G:9.32% B:0.91%) 26.38% (G:8.89% B:0.79%)
Cubeless Equities +0.595 +1.251
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.817 (-0.183)±0.007 (+0.810..+0.823)
Double/Take:+1.078 (+0.078)±0.009 (+1.068..+1.087)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are four variants. Five positions altogether, with five different (proper) cube actions.

Nack






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-c--BBBB---AAC----bd-bbbB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 22pt checker is back on her 24pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.09% (G:28.65% B:1.86%) 82.16% (G:28.65% B:1.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.91% (G:5.38% B:0.47%) 17.84% (G:5.17% B:0.42%)
Cubeless Equities +0.868 +1.784
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.085±0.008 (+1.077..+1.094)
Redouble/Take:+1.673 (+0.587)±0.016 (+1.656..+1.689)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.085)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 12.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41983547
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 50 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-aBBBB--A-AC----bdb-bbB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White owns her 5pt instead of her 4pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.27% (G:23.40% B:1.30%) 71.61% (G:23.76% B:1.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.73% (G:10.50% B:1.11%) 28.39% (G:10.10% B:1.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.556 +1.148
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.771 (-0.187)±0.015 (+0.756..+0.786)
Double/Take:+0.958±0.020 (+0.938..+0.978)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.042)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91241819
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 05 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 126
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-a-BDB--A-AC----bd-bbbB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue's 4pt checkers are moved back 2 pips

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.43% (G:16.75% B:0.90%) 58.70% (G:17.37% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.57% (G:15.61% B:1.68%) 41.30% (G:15.63% B:1.65%)
Cubeless Equities +0.172 +0.369
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.278±0.016 (+0.261..+0.294)
Double/Take:+0.086 (-0.191)±0.023 (+0.063..+0.110)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.722)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49849457
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 24 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 126
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBa-BBB--A-AC----bd-bbbB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: Blue's 4pt checkers are moved forward 2 pips

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.12% (G:17.26% B:1.07%) 56.23% (G:17.48% B:1.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.88% (G:15.92% B:1.47%) 43.77% (G:15.74% B:1.37%)
Cubeless Equities +0.132 +0.280
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.216±0.015 (+0.202..+0.231)
Double/Beaver:-0.059 (-0.275)±0.040 (-0.099..-0.019)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.784)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62831337
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds

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