Who cares II ? Three Variants

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Who cares II ? Three Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 16 February 2026, at 3:51 a.m.

In Response To: Who cares II ? Rollout (21pt) (pierrez)

White is Joueur 1

score: 0
pip: 124

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 168
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 2

XGID=----BBC-----dE---d-ebAA-A-:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq: -0,440
Player:
Opponent: 30,09% (G:5,44% B:0,19%)
69,91% (G:19,38% B:0,96%) Conf.: ą 0,008 (-0,448...-0,432) - [99,9%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq: -0,459 (-0,019)
Player:
Opponent: 28,98% (G:5,08% B:0,17%)
71,02% (G:19,08% B:0,71%) Conf.: ą 0,008 (-0,467...-0,450) - [0,1%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3 eq: -0,462 (-0,022)
Player:
Opponent: 30,80% (G:5,84% B:0,22%)
69,20% (G:23,60% B:1,61%) Conf.: ą 0,009 (-0,471...-0,453) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 24/18 21/18 eq: -0,486 (-0,046)
Player:
Opponent: 26,45% (G:3,66% B:0,13%)
73,55% (G:13,13% B:0,18%) Conf.: ą 0,008 (-0,494...-0,479) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
5. Rollout¹ 21/18 13/7 eq: -0,499 (-0,059)
Player:
Opponent: 29,88% (G:5,75% B:0,21%)
70,12% (G:25,43% B:1,24%) Conf.: ą 0,008 (-0,507...-0,491) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
6. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7 eq: -0,508 (-0,068)
Player:
Opponent: 25,50% (G:3,33% B:0,09%)
74,50% (G:13,11% B:0,15%) Conf.: ą 0,007 (-0,515...-0,501) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is pierrez's rollout of the original position.
Below are three variants. The best play of the first two contrast the best play of the original. The third is a cusp variant; if Blue's board is any weaker, then @ (anchor, 24/18 21/18) becomes clearly best.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 169
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----BBC-----dE---d-ebA-AA-:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: Blue's 22pt blot is nudged back to his 23pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 21/18 eq: -0.395
Player:
Opponent: 30.42% (G:5.20% B:0.17%)
69.58% (G:16.15% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.399...-0.391) - [99.9%]
Duration: 32 minutes 36 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/7 eq: -0.404 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent: 29.09% (G:5.11% B:0.17%)
70.91% (G:13.72% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.408...-0.400) - [0.1%]
Duration: 30 minutes 03 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq: -0.424 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent: 31.34% (G:6.21% B:0.23%)
68.66% (G:21.73% B:1.25%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.429...-0.420) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 24 seconds
4. Rollout² 13/4 eq: -0.443 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent: 30.03% (G:5.57% B:0.18%)
69.97% (G:20.37% B:1.00%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.451...-0.435) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 56 seconds
5. Rollout² 13/7 6/3 eq: -0.444 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent: 31.36% (G:6.30% B:0.25%)
68.64% (G:23.74% B:1.55%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.452...-0.435) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 45 seconds
6. Rollout² 21/18 13/7 eq: -0.457 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent: 30.69% (G:5.68% B:0.21%)
69.31% (G:22.94% B:0.94%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.465...-0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 07 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49849457
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49849457
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 129

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 168
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----BBC-----eE---c-ebAA-A-:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A White 8pt spare is back on her 13pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 21/18 eq: -0.377
Player:
Opponent: 30.20% (G:4.59% B:0.15%)
69.80% (G:12.30% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.381...-0.373) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq: -0.389 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent: 31.37% (G:6.06% B:0.20%)
68.63% (G:17.96% B:0.95%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.393...-0.385) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 53 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3 eq: -0.400 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent: 31.75% (G:6.23% B:0.21%)
68.25% (G:19.95% B:1.25%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.404...-0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 00 second
4. Rollout² 13/4 eq: -0.410 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent: 30.34% (G:5.82% B:0.17%)
69.66% (G:17.37% B:0.73%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.417...-0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 34 seconds
5. Rollout² 24/21 13/7 eq: -0.426 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent: 27.86% (G:4.14% B:0.12%)
72.14% (G:11.36% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.434...-0.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 33 seconds
6. Rollout² 21/18 13/7 eq: -0.431 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent: 31.44% (G:6.35% B:0.25%)
68.56% (G:22.92% B:1.20%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.439...-0.423) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 37 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91241819
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91241819
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--B--BC-----dE---d-ebAA-A-:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue has his 2pt instead of his 4pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 21/18 eq: -0.506
Player:
Opponent: 25.54% (G:3.31% B:0.10%)
74.46% (G:12.84% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.507...-0.504) - [57.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/7 eq: -0.506 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent: 28.52% (G:5.71% B:0.17%)
71.48% (G:22.14% B:1.47%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.508...-0.504) - [43.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq: -0.510 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent: 28.69% (G:5.88% B:0.18%)
71.31% (G:23.29% B:1.45%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.512...-0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
4. Rollout² 24/21 13/7 eq: -0.521 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent: 24.70% (G:2.99% B:0.09%)
75.30% (G:12.19% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.525...-0.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 55 seconds
5. Rollout³ 13/7 6/3 eq: -0.564 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent: 27.49% (G:5.35% B:0.16%)
72.51% (G:24.54% B:1.71%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.572...-0.556) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds
6. Rollout³ 21/15 13/10 eq: -0.571 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent: 25.97% (G:4.50% B:0.14%)
74.03% (G:21.75% B:0.84%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.578...-0.563) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds
7. Rollout³ 24/21 22/16 eq: -0.573 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent: 21.15% (G:1.87% B:0.05%)
78.85% (G:7.16% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.578...-0.569) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 23 seconds

¹ 25920 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57089069
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57089069
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57089069
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Who cares II ?
pierrez -- Tuesday, 10 February 2026, at 3:14 p.m.
- Who cares II ?
  Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Tuesday, 10 February 2026, at 5:35 p.m.
- Who cares II ?
  Annibal -- Tuesday, 10 February 2026, at 7:26 p.m.
- Who cares II ?
  Frank Berger -- Tuesday, 10 February 2026, at 7:57 p.m.
- Who cares II ?
  ah_clem -- Wednesday, 11 February 2026, at 2:45 a.m.
- Who cares II ?
  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 11 February 2026, at 10:12 p.m.
- Who cares II ? Rollout
  pierrez -- Thursday, 12 February 2026, at 3:17 p.m.
  - Who cares II ? Rollout (21pt)
    pierrez -- Friday, 13 February 2026, at 7:57 a.m.
    - Who cares II ? Three Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 16 February 2026, at 3:51 a.m.
  - Who cares II ? Rollout
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Friday, 13 February 2026, at 2:42 p.m.
    - Who cares II ? Rollout
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 13 February 2026, at 4:44 p.m.
      - Who cares II ? Rollout
        Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Friday, 13 February 2026, at 5:02 p.m.

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