BGonline.org Forums

Can we reship? - Cusp Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 17 February 2026, at 12:59 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-12-26 - Can we reship? - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 56 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 115 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBB-----aC----Bc-adcc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.89% (G:4.39% B:0.11%)	67.23% (G:5.04% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.11% (G:2.25% B:0.02%)	32.77% (G:2.34% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.340	+0.746
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.466 (-0.011)	±0.001 (+0.465..+0.467)
Redouble/Take:	+0.477	±0.005 (+0.472..+0.481)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.523)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 16.3 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below is a cusp variant.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 59 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 115 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBB-----aC----Bd-accc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant: A White 3pt spare is moved to her 6pt

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.63% (G:4.32% B:0.10%)	67.22% (G:4.95% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.37% (G:2.04% B:0.02%)	32.78% (G:2.19% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.336	+0.746
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.469	±0.000 (+0.469..+0.470)
Redouble/Take:	+0.469 (0.000)	±0.002 (+0.467..+0.471)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.531)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.1%
Rollout details
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 8399882 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		65.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 57 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 02-12-26 - Can we reship?
  Stick -- Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 1:34 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-12-26 - Can we reship?
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 3:04 a.m.
    • Position of the Day 02-12-26 - Can we reship?
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 4:44 p.m.
      • Position of the Day 02-12-26 - Can we reship?
        ah_clem -- Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 4:47 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-12-26 - Can we reship?
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 1:57 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 02-12-26 - Can we reship?
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 4:45 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-12-26 - Can we reship?
    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 14 February 2026, at 4:41 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-12-26 - Can we reship? - Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 16 February 2026, at 5:40 a.m.
    • Can we reship? - Cusp Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 17 February 2026, at 12:59 a.m.