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Who cares III ? Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 22 February 2026, at 8:23 p.m.

In Response To: Who cares III ? Rollout (pierrez)





White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 119
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=--a-BBBBB---bC---d-db-Bb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72,90% (G:15,44% B:0,55%) 73,11% (G:17,21% B:0,67%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27,10% (G:6,37% B:0,19%) 26,89% (G:6,50% B:0,21%)
Cubeless Equities +0,552 +1,147
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,813 (-0,137)±0,010 (+0,804..+0,823)
Double/Take:+0,950±0,017 (+0,933..+0,967)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,050)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 54 minutes 55 seconds

Above is pierrez's rollout of the original position.

Below are two variants. Altogether, there are three positions, three different (proper) cube actions.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BBBBB---bC---d-d-bBb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 5pt is changed to her 4pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.11% (G:14.49% B:0.43%) 75.58% (G:16.49% B:0.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.89% (G:5.63% B:0.16%) 24.42% (G:5.88% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities +0.594 +1.244
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.851 (-0.149)±0.008 (+0.843..+0.859)
Double/Take:+1.064 (+0.064)±0.016 (+1.048..+1.080)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57089069
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 30 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BBBBB---bC---d-dbbB---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 2pt is changed to her 4pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.48% (G:12.68% B:0.45%) 67.69% (G:13.46% B:0.53%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.52% (G:8.23% B:0.28%) 32.31% (G:8.14% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities +0.396 +0.819
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.630±0.014 (+0.616..+0.644)
Double/Take:+0.589 (-0.041)±0.017 (+0.572..+0.606)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.370)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49841853
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 27 minutes 29 seconds

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