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PotD 02-18-26 - Five different cube actions

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 23 February 2026, at 6:38 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-18-26 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 92
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bCCCBB-----aa----Abbbcb-A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.18% (G:19.99% B:0.67%) 66.01% (G:19.87% B:0.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.82% (G:8.90% B:0.47%) 33.99% (G:9.13% B:0.51%)
Cubeless Equities +0.416 +0.858
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.607 (-0.028)±0.007 (+0.600..+0.614)
Redouble/Take:+0.635±0.009 (+0.625..+0.644)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.365)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 30.7 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are four cube variants. Five positions altogether, with five different cube actions.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 96
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BCBBBa----AA-----cbccbB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 2pt spare is back on her 6pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.90% (G:19.10% B:0.53%) 63.48% (G:18.90% B:0.55%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.10% (G:10.65% B:0.68%) 36.52% (G:10.59% B:0.67%)
Cubeless Equities +0.341 +0.703
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.504±0.011 (+0.493..+0.515)
Redouble/Take:+0.470 (-0.033)±0.016 (+0.454..+0.486)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.496)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49849457
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 34 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BCBBBa----AA----cbb-ccB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 4pt checkers are back on her 7pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.98% (G:29.59% B:0.63%) 70.73% (G:29.65% B:0.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.02% (G:5.88% B:0.27%) 29.27% (G:5.99% B:0.28%)
Cubeless Equities +0.640 +1.309
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.901 (-0.099)±0.013 (+0.888..+0.915)
Redouble/Take:+1.074 (+0.074)±0.016 (+1.058..+1.091)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24792339
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 103
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBCBBBa----AA----cbbc-cB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White's 3pt checkers are back on her 7pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.56% (G:16.47% B:0.53%) 51.79% (G:16.58% B:0.55%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.44% (G:12.41% B:0.81%) 48.21% (G:12.32% B:0.82%)
Cubeless Equities +0.069 +0.151
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.237±0.008 (+0.229..+0.245)
Redouble/Beaver:-0.462 (-0.698)±0.038 (-0.500..-0.423)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.763)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 32.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49841853
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 30 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 107
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BCBBBa----AA---c-bbc-cB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White's 3pt checkers are back on her 8pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.92% (G:38.52% B:0.82%) 77.63% (G:38.53% B:0.80%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.08% (G:5.43% B:0.32%) 22.37% (G:5.44% B:0.29%)
Cubeless Equities +0.874 +1.777
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.037±0.006 (+1.032..+1.043)
Redouble/Take:+1.613 (+0.576)±0.014 (+1.600..+1.627)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.037)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 6.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62831337
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 09 seconds

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