For opening replies, hitting outside the homeboard is superior to making the four point - see the ten examples at http://bgquiz.com/openingreplies/index.html?i=6,57,58,95,202,217,232,303,362,392&title=
That made me want to hit here, and bringing a second checker down seemed to be the obvious follow on. But this isn't an opening reply and simply making the four point is far enough ahead in XGR++ that I don't see the need for a full rollout.
Why point here instead of hitting? Hitting breaks the midpoint instead of unstacking it with an opening reply. Hitting also leaves three checkers subject to fly shots from the bar, while pointing leaves no shots at all. Might be some other reasons.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147 | | 5 point match | pip: 146
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a----EBC-AaaBbb-c-e-B----:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:5:9 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.403 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.32% (G:16.62% B:0.44%)
41.68% (G:6.46% B:0.24%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/9 13/11* | eq: +0.279 (-0.124) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.90% (G:17.84% B:0.83%)
45.10% (G:8.89% B:0.34%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/11* 11/7 | eq: +0.198 (-0.205) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.16% (G:15.87% B:0.66%)
46.84% (G:8.80% B:0.33%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 13/11* 10/6 | eq: +0.102 (-0.301) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.95% (G:14.37% B:0.56%)
49.05% (G:9.19% B:0.34%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2