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What PR difference will make this a practical drop?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 24 February 2026, at 8:22 p.m.

In Response To: What PR difference will make this a practical drop? (Bob Koca)

Chuck answers the main question I had, i.e. does blue have a rewhip when white fails to bear off? He says "no" and I'm inclined to agree with him. That makes it a dead cube after the take.

While perhaps not directly applicable, looking at XGR++ at 4a 4a it's barely a take, which makes me think you don't need very much PR difference once you've decided it's enough to hold when white misses.

IOW, the live cube pass is a 600 millipoint error, while the dead cube (4a4a) pass only costs 35 millipoints. Maybe 3PR difference is enough? Don't have a good feel for that, but letting the fish have the 2 points now seems like a surer path to victory than throwing the entire match to the whims of the next two dice rolls.





White is Player 1

score: 1
pip: 6
5 point match
pip: 6
score: 1

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--A-A-----------------b---:1:-1:-1:00:1:1:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 66.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 33.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.326 +0.965
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.326 (-0.639)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.965
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.035)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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