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PotD 02-20-26 - Three Cube Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 27 February 2026, at 6:01 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-20-26 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-B-AB-a---dE--ac-e---AB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 55.72% (G:27.89% B:0.97%) 55.96% (G:28.84% B:0.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.28% (G:12.22% B:0.74%) 44.04% (G:12.31% B:0.76%)
Cubeless Equities +0.273 +0.573
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.366±0.014 (+0.352..+0.381)
Double/Take:+0.222 (-0.144)±0.024 (+0.199..+0.246)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.634)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are three cube variants. Altogether, four positions with four different (proper) cube actions.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBAB--B-a---dE--ac-e---AB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: Blue's 5pt blot is on his 2pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 52.94% (G:25.64% B:0.75%) 53.11% (G:26.01% B:0.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.06% (G:13.76% B:0.90%) 46.89% (G:14.00% B:0.89%)
Cubeless Equities +0.176 +0.361
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.229±0.012 (+0.217..+0.241)
Double/Beaver:-0.033 (-0.262)±0.032 (-0.065..-0.001)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.771)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.2%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33978672
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 55 minutes 43 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-B-AB-a---dE--acAe---AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A Blue 24pt checker is on his 18pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.63% (G:30.71% B:1.15%) 60.14% (G:31.86% B:1.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.37% (G:10.66% B:0.59%) 39.86% (G:11.04% B:0.65%)
Cubeless Equities +0.399 +0.831
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.505 (-0.005)±0.007 (+0.498..+0.512)
Double/Take:+0.510±0.011 (+0.498..+0.521)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.490)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47300933
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:75.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-B-AC-a---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue's 23pt checker is on his 6pt

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.81% (G:38.55% B:1.33%) 66.00% (G:39.04% B:1.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.19% (G:7.31% B:0.35%) 34.00% (G:7.37% B:0.38%)
Cubeless Equities +0.638 +1.292
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.704 (-0.296)
Double/Take:+1.047 (+0.047)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

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